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Abstract:The Nikkei 225 dropped alongside Nintendo shares. The ASX 200 may be topping on bearish technical signals. Declines in equities may be ahead after Asia Pacific stocks mostly sunk.
Asia Pacific Markets Talking Points
Equities mostly sink in Asia as trade war fears overshadow dovish Fed bets
S&P 500 futures hint further pessimism to come ahead as anti-risk Yen gains
ASX 200 may top given bearish technical signals despite RBA rate cut bets
Find out what retail traders equities buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend!
Pessimism from Wall Street echoed into Thursdays Asia Pacific trading session, with most regional bourses aiming lower. Softer-than-expected US inflation data, which fueled more dovish Fed monetary policy expectations, did little to distract traders from the threat of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
The Nikkei 225, Japans benchmark stock index, traded about 0.6 percent lower heading into the close. Information technology shares underperformed, and video game maker Nintendo slumped.
Australias ASX 200 was close to little changed as it was offered some relief by rising expectations of a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, again. A lackluster employment report sent local front-end government bond yields falling, with the 3-year dropping below one percent for the first time on record.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped about 0.9%, extending declines from yesterday as extradition protests continued and as one-month HIBOR climbed to its highest since 2008. USD/HKD has seen aggressive declines as of late after flirting with the HKMAs weak-side convertibility undertaking.
S&P 500 futures are pointing decisively lower, hinting that risk aversion may prevail over the remaining 24 hours. As such, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may extend gains as Wall Street gaps lower. This would pose to bode ill for the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which are already lower.
ASX 200 Technical Analysis
Taking a closer look at the ASX 200, the index recently left behind a Shooting Star candlestick, which is a sign of indecision. Meanwhile, negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading. As such, technical signals are warning of a top that could be in the making. For medium-term conviction, keep an eye on the rising channel of support going back to February on the chart below.
ASX 200 Daily Chart
Chart Created in TradingView
Disclaimer:
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, boosted by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth in Japan, raising hopes for a BoJ rate hike. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair found support from higher US Treasury yields, though gains may be capped by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
The aftermath of the Japanese yen's strengthening has manifested in significant dips across multiple markets, including equities, commodities, and various currencies. The yen has erased all its 2024 losses against the dollar, moving towards the 145.00 mark. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since March, hovering above the $103 mark.
Fed officials have indicated they are prepared to cut interest rates if necessary, though there is no immediate need. This dovish stance has been viewed positively by the markets, leading to increased buying pressure on gold. Despite ongoing inflationary risks, market expectations of a rate cut in June have risen to 66.3% (up 3% since the PCE release). Lower interest rates could enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold.
The U.S. Conference Board reported a slight decline in the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2024, dropping to 100.4 from 101.3 in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) opted to keep its key short-term interest rate steady at 0.10% for June 2024, in line with market expectations. At its June 2024 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50%. In June 2024, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the interest rate at 5.25% unchanged. This decision...