Gold Price Bullish Breakout Begins amid Topside Range Breach

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

- Gold 1-month implied volatility hit a fresh all-time closing low yesterday, but the fact that Gold prices havent dropped any lower may be a good omen.

- 黄金1个月隐含波动率触及新的历史收盘低点昨天，但黄金价格没有下跌的事实可能是一个好兆头。

- Since the gold price breakout in mid-May failed, price has remained into the 1266.18 to 1288.58 range from first entered on April 15.

- 由于5月中旬黄金价格暴跌失败，价格一直保持在1266.18至1288.58范围从4月15日首次进入。

- Changes in retail traders positioning suggest that Gold prices may turn higher yet.

- 零售交易商定位的变化表明黄金价格可能会转高。

With global risk assets falling in tandem as the week and month come to a close, gold prices have attracted significant positive attention. The aggregate fall in US equity markets, US Treasury yields, and the US Dollar has boosted demand for gold. Rising uncertainty around global trade continues to plague investor sentiment, and questions over meager US growth conditions have once again started to provoke speculation over a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

全球风险资产同步下跌随着周和月的结束，黄金价格已经吸引了大量的积极关注。美国股市，美国国债收益率和美元的总体下跌推动了对黄金的需求。不断上升的全球贸易不确定性继续困扰投资者情绪，美国经济增长微弱的问题再一次开始引发对美联储今年降息的猜测。

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For gold prices, this is perhaps the perfect concoction of news flow and cross-asset market reactions for a near-term turn to the topside. With US real yields dropping (nominal Treasury yields are falling while inflation hasnt moved) and the denominated currency (US Dollar) pulling back from its yearly highs, there are substantive fundamental reasons for gold prices to be trading higher.

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GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (May 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 1)

GVZ（黄金波动率）技术分析：每日价格走势图（2018年5月至2019年5月）（图1）

As was noted yesterday, perhaps the best development for gold prices in the near-term has been how gold volatility and gold prices have interacted in recent days. Even as gold volatility fell to an all-time closing low earlier this week, gold prices did not follow suit; we suggested that this was a bullish sign for bullion. Now, with gold volatility rising again, gold prices have seen a surge to the topside.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (April 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 2)

黄金价格技术分析：日线图（2018年4月至2019年5月）（图2）

Now that gold prices have traded above 1288.58, we are topside break of the consolidation as well as the downtrend from the February and March 2019 highs. To this end, while the forecast has shifted in a bullish direction, gold prices now need to clear 1303.21, the May high, in order to cement their bullish breakout move. Ultimately, if gold prices have been consolidating in a bullish falling wedge since January, then the terminal price target would be for a return to the 2019 high at 1346.61.

现在黄金价格已经突破1288.58点，我们是整理的上行突破以及2019年2月和3月高点的下行趋势。为此，虽然预测已经向看涨方向转移，但现在黄金价格需要清除1303.21，即5月高位，以巩固其看涨突破走势。最终，如果黄金价格自1月以来一直在看涨下跌，那么终端价格目标将是回到2019年高点1346.61。

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (May 31, 2019) (Chart 3)

IG客户情绪指数：现货金价预测（2019年5月31日）（图3）

Spot gold: Retail trader data shows 73.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.76 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since May 15 when it traded near 1296.78. The number of traders net-long is 12.5% lower than yesterday and 10.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.7% higher than yesterday and 14.6% higher from last week.

现货黄金：零售交易者数据显示，73.4％的交易者是交易者长期与空头的比率为2.76比1.交易者净多头的比例现在是5月15日以来的最低点，当时交易价格接近1296.78。交易商净多头比昨天减少12.5％，比上周减少10.7％，而交易商净空头数比昨天增加15.7％，比上周增加14.6％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current spot gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而且交易商持续观点表明现货黄金价格可能继续下跌。然而，与上周相比，交易商净持续时间较短。近期情绪变化警告称，尽管交易商保持净多头，但目前的现货黄金价格走势可能很快反转走高。