USDNOK Teeters on Edge of 14-Month Support: Will it Bounce or Break？

NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

NORDIC FX，NOK，SEK每周展望

• USDNOK traders tense up ahead of major cross point

  USDNOK交易员在主要交叉前紧张点

• USDNOK testing key support strength in trading range

  USDNOK测试交易区间的关键支撑力

• USDSEK may experience pullback before resuming uptrend

  USDSEK在恢复上升趋势之前可能会遇到回调

USDNOK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDNOK技术分析

USDNOK broke below the lower lip of the 8.6937-8.7883 range (solid yellow lines), and meaningful follow-through could be a major risk and could usurp optimism over the pair‘s upward trajectory. The rising support (red parallel channel) has been active for over 14 months. A break below this with follow-through would mark a significant turn for the pair’s movement.

USDNOK跌破8.6937-8.7883区间的下唇（实线黄线），并且有意义的跟随通过可能是一个主要风险，并可能篡夺对该货币对上行轨迹的乐观情绪。上升支撑（红色平行通道）已经活跃了超过14个月。通过跟进突破这一点将标志着该货币对的重大转变。

USDNOK – Daily Chart

USDNOK - 每日图表

Despite USDNOK coming dangerously close to breaking below the over-one year rising support, the pair appear to be determined to continue higher. This comes despite a comparatively more hawkish outlook from the Norges Bank relative to the Fed. Unless the pair break below this upward-sloping support with follow-through, the current trajectory is expected to continue at least until year-end.

尽管USDNOK危险地接近突破一年以上的支撑位，但该货币对出现了决心继续走高。尽管挪威银行相对于美联储的前景相对更加强硬，但这仍然存在。除非这对突破支撑位于这个向上倾斜的支撑位之下，否则目前的轨迹预计至少会持续到年底。

USDNOK – Weekly Chart

USDNOK - Weekly Chart

KRONA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

KRONA技术分析

USDSEK appears to be retreating from the sugar high it experienced in late April when the pair jumped approximately 2.5 percent. The break above resistance at 9.3110 (solid red line) with follow-through marked a significant bullish landmark as USDSEK continued to trade at a 17-year high. However, the pair may have now found a new temporary range between 9.5323-9.5767 (red dotted parallel lines).

USDSEK似乎正在退出4月下旬，当该货币对上涨2.5％时，糖价走高。突破阻力位于9.3110（实线红线）以及后续跟随标志着一个重要的看涨标志，因为美元兑日元继续以17年高点交易。然而，该货币对现在可能已经找到一个新的临时范围9.5323-9.5767（红色虚线平行线）。

USDSEK – Daily Chart

USDSEK - 每日图表

The prospective congestion may be a repeat of what had occurred earlier in the year when the pair spiked, cooled and traded sideways before resuming its broad uptrend. The period of relatively-lateral price movement could be thought of as a digestive interim where market participants take a moment to reevaluate their position and determine if the prevailing trend will continue along its current trajectory.

A monthly chart shows the uptrend has continued along its steep incline since January 2018. The prevailing trend will likely continue and will be supported by fundamental tailwinds that will put a premium on liquidity and a discount on risk. In this environment, the almighty US Dollars unparalleled liquidity will redirect capital away from risk-oriented assets like the Swedish Krona.

USDSEK – Monthly Chart

USDSEK - 月度图表

SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

SWEDISH KRONA，NORWEGIANKRONE TRADING RESOURCES