Gold Prices May Rise if USD Sinks, US Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

黄金价格基本预测：看涨

• Gold prices capitalized on dismal US PMI figures as US Dollar sunk

  由于美元下跌，黄金价格利用美国PMI数据令人沮丧

• XAU/USD may gain in the short-run on more disappointing US data

  XAU / USD可能在短期内因美国数据令人失望而获利

• Possibility of US Dollar gains in the medium-term may subdue gold

  中期美元收益的可能性可能会抑制黄金

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在DailyFX网络研讨会上实时交互所有主要的全球经济数据。我很高兴能帮助你。

XAU/USD Wrap

XAU / USD Wrap

Gold prices spent most of last week in rather mute trade until a sudden surge of volatility on Thursday sent the precious metal rallying. Looking at the XAU/USD 4-hour chart below, we can see that it rallied at the expense of the S&P 500, US Dollar and local front-end government bond yields. This kind of trading dynamic reflected increased Fed rate cut expectations on a dismal set of US PMI data.

金上周大部分价格都是在相当无声的交易中度过的，直到周四波动剧烈突然导致贵金属上涨。看看下面的XAU / USD 4小时图，我们可以看到它以标准普尔500指数，美元和当地前端政府债券收益率为代价上涨。这种交易动态反映了美联储降息预期对美国采购经理人指数数据的惨淡看法。

Gold Rises as US PMI Data Sinks USD and Bond Yields

随着美国采购经理人指数数据下挫美元和债券收益率，黄金价格上涨/>

Chart Created in TradingView

在TradingView中创建的图表

Gold Week Ahead

未来的黄金周

Golds sensitivity to unison behavior in the Greenback, S&P 500 and bond yields underscores its anti-fiat appeal rather than as a safe-haven asset. The yellow metal has no interest-bearing qualities, which are what typically give currencies their appeal. As an example, last week we saw the Australian Dollar accelerate its depreciation on the buildup of RBA dovish expectations which lead to a 90% probability that we may get a cut in June.

黄金对美元，标准普尔500指数和债券收益率的一致行为的敏感性强调了其反法外吸引力，而不是作为避险资产。黄色金属没有任何有利的品质，这通常会使货币具有吸引力。举个例子，上周我们看到澳元兑美元加速贬值，导致澳大利亚央行温和的预期增加导致我们可能在6月份减产的概率为90％。

With that in mind and using last week as an example, the impetus for additional gains in gold prices depends mostly on how far Federal Reserve rate cut expectations can go. As a reminder, the central bank has reiterated its data-dependent stance. To that end, there are plenty of opportunities such as US consumer confidence and GDP data to impact the Fed‘s outlook on US economic growth prospects. Not to mention that we will also get the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE.

考虑到这一点并以上周为例，黄金价格进一步上涨的动力主要取决于美联储降息预期能走多远。提醒一下，央行重申其数据依赖立场。为此，有很多机会成功由于美国消费者信心和GDP数据影响美联储对美国经济增长前景的展望。更不用说我们还将获得央行首选的通胀指标 - 核心PCE。

The US Citi Economic Surprise Index is negative and has been so since around the middle of February. This does suggest that economists are overestimating the health and vigor of the economy, leaving data vulnerable to disappointment in the coming week. Having said that, data in the US has been tending to fall short by increasingly smaller margins since the beginning of this month.

美国花旗经济惊喜指数为负数，自2月中旬以来一直如此。这确实表明经济学家高估了经济的健康和活力，使得数据在未来一周内容易受到失望。话虽如此，自本月初以来，美国的数据一直趋于缩小，利润率越来越小。

While in the short-run this may support gold, gains in the highly-liquid US Dollar during times of aggressive risk aversion can counter this and should not be discounted.

虽然在短期内这可能支持黄金，但收益在积极的风险厌恶时期，高流动性的美元可以对抗这一点，不应该打折扣。