Euro Cringes Ahead of EU Trade Talks, European Election Results

EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST：BEARISH

• The Euro will be at the mercy of politically-based event risk

  欧元将受政治事件风险的影响

• E.g. European election results, candidates for key positions

  例如欧洲大选结果，关键职位候选人

• EU trade negotiations in Brussels will be crucial to monitor

  欧盟在布鲁塞尔的贸易谈判对监督至关重要

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The Euro will likely experience higher-than-usual volatility in the week ahead. The primary catalyst for potentially violent price action may be politically-based factors. These include the European election results and prospective candidates in the new EU parliament for positions in key regional institutions. Trade talks between EU trade ministers in Brussels may also warrant the attention of traders with exposure to the Euro.

欧元可能会出现高于平时的波动未来一周。潜在暴力价格行为的主要催化剂可能是基于政治因素。这些包括欧洲选举结果和新欧盟议会中的潜在候选人，以获得关键区域机构的职位。布鲁塞尔欧盟贸易部长之间的贸易谈判也可能引起欧元接触的交易商的关注。

The European elections take place between May 23-26 and a final result will likely be published in the late hours on Sunday. Eurosceptic parties are estimated to win up to one-third of all seats in the EU legislative arm. This leaves Europe potentially at the mercy of anti-establishment candidates, who historically have had a penchant of disrupting markets with their agendas.

欧洲选举正在进行5月23日至26日之间，最终结果可能会在周日晚些时候公布。据估计，欧洲怀疑政党赢得欧盟立法机构所有席位的三分之一。这使得欧洲可能受到反建制候选人的支配，这些候选人历来曾喜欢用他们的议程扰乱市场。

Brexit Referendum sends GBP, UK 10-year bond yields lower, USD higher

英国退欧公投送英镑，英国10年期国债收益率走低，美元走高

A greater number of Eurosceptic parties in the EU means that there is a higher probability of anti-establishment candidates that will occupy influential positions in key European institutions. On May 28, EU leaders will be discussing potential contenders for the Commission President, European Council and the ECB. Depending on the ideological make-up of the most popular candidates it could undermine confidence in the Euro.

欧盟中更多的欧洲怀疑主义政党意味着反建制候选人更有可能在欧洲主要机构中占据有影响力的职位。 5月28日，欧盟领导人将讨论委员会主席，欧洲理事会和欧洲央行的潜在竞争者。取决于最受欢迎的候选人的意识形态构成c这将危及对欧元的信心。

Compounding the risk will be a meeting in Brussels between EU trade ministers who will be discussing the state of trade relations with the US. One of the topics that will be heavily covered will be ways to avoid having Washington impose auto tariffs against Europe. In a region where weakness in economic activity is still persisting, a trade war with the US would only dampen the outlook and hurt the Euro.

加剧风险将是欧盟贸易部长之间的布鲁塞尔会议，他们将讨论与美国的贸易关系状况。其中一个重要议题将是避免让华盛顿对欧洲征收汽车关税的方法。在一个经济活动仍然持续疲软的地区，与美国的贸易战只会挫伤前景并损害欧元。

Diplomatic relations between Brussels and Washington has grown increasingly sour since the two engaged in a spat last year. Adding to the friction is the divergence in EU-US foreign policy toward Iran which may become a sticking point and a potential condition for reaching a trade deal. However, it is unclear whether the EU would agree to such a change in policy out of a concern that it may set a dangerous precedent for future negotiations.

布鲁塞尔和华盛顿之间的外交关系日益恶化，因为去年两人发生争执。加剧摩擦的是欧盟对伊朗的外交政策的分歧，这可能成为达成贸易协议的关键点和潜在条件。然而，目前尚不清楚欧盟是否会同意这种政策变化，因为它可能为未来的谈判开辟一个危险的先例。