GBPUSD Rate Susceptible to Dismal UK Retail Sales Report

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales

交易新闻：英国零售销售

The U.K. Retail Sales report may keep GBP/USD under pressure as the headline reading for household spending is expected to contract 0.4% in April.

英国零售销售报告可能使英镑/美元承压，因为家庭支出的总体预期收缩0.4 4月份的百分比。

Signs of a less robust economy may produce headwinds for the British Pound as it encourages the Bank of England (BoE) to retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy. The central bank may come under pressure to abandon its rate hike bias as ‘quarterly growth is expected to slow to around 0.2% in Q2.’

不太强劲的经济迹象可能会为英镑带来阻力，因为它鼓励英格兰银行（BoE）保持货币政策的观望态度。央行可能面临放弃加息偏见的压力，因为“季度增长预计将在第二季度放缓至0.2％左右。”

With that said, a decline of 0.4% or greater may trigger a bearish reaction in GBP/USD, but a positive development may curb the recent decline in the Pound Dollar exchange rate as Governor Mark Carney & Co. insist that ‘were the economy to develop broadly in line with its Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon.’

据此，下降0.4 ％或更高可能引发英镑/美元的看跌反应，但积极的发展可能抑制近期英镑兑美元汇率的下跌，因为州长马克卡尼公司坚持认为“这是一个与其通胀报告一致的经济发展”预测，在预测期内持续收紧货币政策，以逐步的速度和有限的程度，适当地将通货膨胀率可持续地恢复到传统范围内的2％目标。

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Keep in mind, headlines surrounding the Brexit negotiations may produce increased volatility in GBP/USD as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to secure a deal.

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Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report had on GBP/USD during the last print

英国零售业的影响销售报告在上次打印时有英镑/美元

March 2019 U.K. Retail Sales

期间 数据已发布 估计 实际 点数变化（事件后1小时） 点数变化（日后事件结束） 2019年3月 04/18/2019 08:30:00 GMT -0.3％ 1.1％ 0 -35 2019年3月英国零售销售

GBP/USD 10-Minute Chart

英镑/美元10分钟图表

The U.K. Retail Sales report showed an unexpected expansion in household consumption, with private-sector spending increasing 1.1% in March after expanding a revised 0.6% the month prior. A deeper look showed the better-than-expected print was generate by a 4.2% rise in ‘non-store retailing,’ with the volume of retail sales increasing 6.7% from the previous year to mark the fastest pace of growth since 2016.

英国零售销售报告显示意外扩张在家庭消费方面，3月份私营部门支出增长1.1％，前一个月修正后增长0.6％。更深层次的观察显示，“非商店零售”增长4.2％，好于预期。零售额同比增长6.7％，创下2016年以来的最快增长速度。

The initial reaction to the above-forecast print was short-lived, with GBP/USD struggling to hold above the 1.3000 handle as the exchange rate closed the day at 1.2979. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

对上述预测印刷品的初步反应是短暂的，随着汇率收于1.2979，英镑兑美元难以维持在1.3000上方。通过DailyFX交易新闻高级指南了解更多信息。

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart

英镑兑美元汇率每日图表

• Keep in mind, the broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as the exchange rate snaps the upward trend from late last year after failing to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).

  请记住，英镑/美元的更广阔前景不再看涨汇率在未能收于斐波纳契重叠点1.3310（100％扩张）至1.3370（扩张78.6％）之后，从去年年底开始上升趋势。

• As a result, the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic, with the oscillator now tracking the bearish formation carried over from March.

  因此，2019年低点（1.2373）的上涨可能会继续解开，因为相对强弱指数（RSI）突显了类似的动态，振荡器现在跟踪3月结转的看跌形态。

• A break/close below the 1.2610 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2640 (38.2% expansion) region opens up the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2370 (50% expansion) to 1.2440 (50% expansion), which largely lines up with the 2019-low (1.2373).

  突破/收盘跌破1.2610（23.6％回撤位）至1.2640（38.2％扩张区域），斐波那契重叠在1.2370附近（50％扩张）至1.2440（50％扩张），主要与2019年低点（1.2373）一致。

• Will keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator pushes into oversold territory, but a move back above 30 may foreshadow a rebound in GBP/USD as the bearish momentum abates.

  将密切注意RSI为振荡器进入超卖领域，但回升至30以上可能预示英镑/美元反弹为看跌时刻嗯减弱。