USDCAD Rips and Dips on Tariffs, USMCA Deal, BOC Report

USDCAD, BOC, TARIFFS, USMCA DEAL – TALKING POINTS

USDCAD，BOC，TARIFFS，USMCA交易 - 谈话要点

• USDCAD has seen quite a bit of price action over the last 36 hours in response to mixed headlines but could drift lower following reports that a final USMCA deal has been reached

  美元兑加元看到了相当多的过去36小时的价格走势反应混合头条新闻，但在报道已达成USMCA最终协议之后可能会下跌

• Tariff headlines surrounding US steel imports from Turkey initially sent the loonie lower, but the Canadian Dollar ascended after the White House announced intent to lift tariffs on Canadian steel exports

  关税头条新闻周边美国从土耳其进口钢材最初使加元走低，但加拿大元在白宫宣布提高加拿大钢铁出口关税后上涨

• The Bank of Canada released a not-so-hot financial stability report Thursday which weighs on the CAD while Fridays Consumer Sentiment Index out of the US buoys the greenback

  加拿大央行周四公布了一份不那么热门的金融稳定报告，该报告对加元征收影响，而周五美国消费者信心指数浮现美元

USDCAD climbed over 100 pips from Thursday‘s intraday low and topped the 1.35 handle early Friday only to quickly plunge back to the 1.3460 mark as contradicting news clouds the currency pair’s direction over the short term.

美元兑加元从周四的盘中低点攀升超过100个点，并在周五早些时候突破1.35关口，但很快回落至1.3460关口，因为相反的消息使得该货币对在短期内的走势黯然失色。

The Canadian Dollar depreciated against the US Dollar throughout most of yesterday‘s trading session, likely in response to downbeat commentary in the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report released. The BOC stated that vulnerabilities and risks to financial stability in Canada ticked “slightly higher” mostly owing to “fragile corporate debt funding” and a high “overall level of indebtedness” in the country.

加元贬值者在昨天交易时段的大部分时间里，美元兑美元汇率受到冲击，可能是因为加拿大央行发布的金融稳定报告中的悲观评论。中国银行表示，加拿大金融稳定的脆弱性和风险“稍微高一些”，主要是由于“脆弱的公司债务融资”和该国的“整体负债水平”。

USDCAD PRICE CHART: 15-MINUTE TIME FRAME (MAY 16, 2019 TO MAY 17, 2019)

USDCAD PRICE CHART：15分钟时间框架（2019年5月16日至2019年5月17日）

The report also largely discussed headwinds faced by slowing economic growth. Consequently, USDCAD climbed broadly higher. But, the central bank noted progress in areas of mortgage lending and household borrowing while concluding that the “system remains resilient and confidence among market participants continues to be high.”

报告也在很大程度上讨论过经济增长放缓所面临的阻力。因此，美元兑加元大幅攀升。但是，央行注意到抵押贷款和家庭借贷领域的进展，同时得出的结论是“系统仍然具有弹性，市场参与者之间的信心仍然很高。”

Late on Thursday, upside in USDCAD was exacerbated by reports from the Trump Administration that it plans to slash tariffs on Turkish steel exports in half from 50 percent to 25 percent. The official report stated that “maintaining the existing 25 percent ad valorem tariff on most countries is necessary and appropriate at this time” which some market participants interpreted as Trump plans to leave metal tariffs currently imposed on Canada in place – possibly jeopardizing the long-anticipated USMCA deal. This seemingly countered the upbeat USMCA rhetoric earlier in the week, previously pushing the Canadian Dollar higher.

周四晚些时候，蓬勃发展特朗普政府的报告称，美元兑加元计划将土耳其钢铁出口关税从50％降至25％，这加剧了美元兑加元的走势。官方报告指出，“维持现有大多数国家现有25％的从价关税是必要和适当的”，一些市场参与者认为特朗普计划暂时对加拿大实施金属关税 - 这可能会危及长期预期USMCA交易。这似乎在本周早些时候反对美国主要市场的乐观言论，之前推高了加元。

Now, the White House has confirmed its intent to lift metal tariffs after President Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke on the phone early Friday. With the removal of tariffs on steel and other metals like aluminum, the biggest obstacle to finalizing the USMCA deal appears to have been overcome. Also, the countries reportedly agreed to stronger monitoring and enforcement procedures opting against import restrictions via quotas. This is a major breakthrough considering 19 percent of US steel imports were from Canada whereas Canada sent nearly 90 percent of its steel exports to America.

现在，白宫已确认其意图在特朗普总统和总理之后提高金属关税贾斯汀特鲁多部长周五早些时候通过电话讲话。随着钢铁和其他金属（如铝）关税的取消，最终确定USMCA协议的最大障碍似乎已被克服。此外，据报道，各国同意加强监督和执法程序，选择通过配额限制进口限制。这是一项重大突破，考虑到19％的美国钢铁进口来自加拿大，而加拿大将近90％的钢铁出口到美国。

Along with Mexico, the final USMCA deal reached between the three North American trading partners is a key development which now looks to provide some buoyancy to the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso over the short and medium term. Although, with the US Dollar is pushing higher today as well after a stellar consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan – news that is likely offsetting the recent dip lower in USDCAD and USDMXN slightly.

与墨西哥一起，达成了USMCA的最终协议三个北美贸易伙伴之间是一个关键的发展，现在看起来在短期和中期内为加元和墨西哥比索提供了一些支撑。尽管如此，在美国密歇根大学发布消费者信心指数之后，美元今天也在走高 - 这一消息可能抵消了美元兑加元和美元兑瑞郎近期的小幅下跌。

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- 由DailyFX的初级分析师Rich Dvorak撰写

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