Volatility Jumps Across FX, Stocks, Bonds, Gold as Risks Rise

VOLATILITY AND THE GLOBAL MARKETS – TALKING POINTS

波动性和全球市场 - 谈话要点

• Volatility measures for forex, stock, bond and gold markets jumped this past month as global uncertainty rose

  外汇，股票，债券的波动性指标全球不确定性上升，上个月黄金市场大幅上涨

• The relationship of S&P 500 to FX implied volatility (for the Euro, Pound and Yen) could indicate where the stock market might head

  标准普尔500指数与外汇隐含波动率（欧元，英镑和日元）之间的关系可能如此表明股市可能走向何方

With the interconnectedness of the global economy, the threat of major risks spilling over from one market to the other is worryingly high. While traders and investors in America tend to obsess over the Cboe S&P 500 Volatility Index, the measure is isolated to the US equity market.

随着全球经济的相互联系，从一个市场蔓延到另一个市场的主要风险的威胁令人担忧地高涨。虽然美国的交易员和投资者倾向于对Cboe标准普尔500指数波动率指数感到困惑，但该指标与美国股市隔绝。

As such, analyzing the S&P 500 Volatility Index alone may not be as indicative of volatility across global asset classes. Rather, a comprehensive look at volatility indicators across forex, emerging markets, treasuries and gold in addition to the VIX may provide more insight for traders.

因此，仅分析标准普尔500指数波动率指数可能并不表示全球资产类别的波动性。相反，除了VIX之外，全面了解外汇，新兴市场，国债和黄金的波动率指标可能会为交易者提供更多洞察力。

VOLATILITY EXPECTED FOR SPX, EUR, GBP, JPY, TNX, XAUUSD, EEM PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (MAY 01, 2018 TO MAY 16, 2019)

预计SPX，EUR，GBP的波动性，JPY，TNX，XAUUSD，EEM PRICE CHART：DAILY TIME FRAME（2018年5月1日至2019年5月16日）

Volatility has jumped off depressed levels recorded last month as uncertainty surrounding several major market risks resurfaced. Over the last few weeks, cross-asset volatility has climbed owing to trade wars, monetary policy, Brexit, and geopolitical concerns flaring up among other notable factors.

Volatility has由于几个主要市场风险的不确定性重新浮出水面，上个月记录的低迷水平飙升。在过去几周，由于贸易战，货币政策，英国脱欧和地缘政治问题在其他显着因素中飙升，交叉资产波动性已经攀升。

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Although the S&P 500 volatility and emerging market volatility measures have both receded from their recent spike higher, forex volatility (FXVIX) - measured by an equally-weighted index of the CMEs volatility readings for Euro, British Pound Sterling and Japanese Yen – remains elevated.

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VIX TO FXVIX RATIO VERSUS S&P 500 INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 22, 2017 TO MAY 16, 2019)

VIX到FXVIX比率与标准普尔500指数价格图表：每日时间框架（2017年12月22日至2019年5月16日）

VIX is more susceptible to mean-reversion where large swings typically reverse back toward its recent historical average – in part due to the buy-and-hold nature of the market. On the other hand, FXVIX is generally more steadfast in the sense that it does not abide the same asset caveats as shares or other zero-limited markets. Although these metrics can frequently stray from their historical relationships by temporary means, persistent divergence could be cause for concern.

VIX更容易受到大摆动的均值回复的影响通常会逆转其近期的历史平均水平 - 部分原因是市场的买入并持有性质。另一方面，FXVIX通常更加坚定，因为它不会像股票或其他零限制市场那样遵守相同的资产警告。尽管这些指标经常可以通过临时手段偏离其历史关系，但持续的分歧可能引起关注。

Considering the international nature of the most pressing risks threatening the markets, the elevated level of forex volatility may be more telling of risks faced by the global financial system. So, while VIX may be the markets favorite indicator of fear or uncertainty, forex volatility may be more appropriate to measure global risk.

考虑到威胁市场的最紧迫风险的国际性质，外汇波动水平可能更能说明全球金融体系面临的风险。因此，虽然VIX可能是市场最喜欢的恐惧或不确定指标，但外汇波动可能更适合衡量全球风险。