US Dollar Rejected at Weekly High After NFP: S&P 500 Nearing a Turn？

US Dollar Talking Points:

美元谈话要点：

- The US Dollar is heading lower this morning following the release of April Non-Farm Payroll numbers out of the United States. The headline print came out strong, showing at +263k versus an expectation of +190k. But, elsewhere in the report, the internals werent as positive and the net response thus far has been a move of USD weakness.

- 美国4月份非农就业数据公布后，美元今早走低。标题印刷结果强劲，显示为+ 263k，而预期为+ 190k。但是，在报告的其他部分，内部结构并不是积极的，迄今为止的净反应是美元疲软的举动。

- The initial move in USD was a quick wick up to test the weekly high; but sellers showed soon after and have retained control since. The rest of today brings a series of FOMC speakers, and this could continue to drive volatility through markets following this weeks rate decision, and next week brings the release of US CPI numbers on Friday.

- 美元的初步走势是快速上涨测试每周高点;但卖家很快就表现出来，并保留了控制权。今天剩下的时间带来了一系列FOMC发言人，这可能继续在本周利率决定后推动市场波动，下周将公布周五美国CPI数据。

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US Dollar Drops After NFP

NFP之后的美元汇率

This morning brought the release of April Non-Farm Payroll numbers out of the US, and while the headline number was fairly strong, the internals were questionable. The US economy added +263k jobs in the month of April, blowing by the expectation for +190k to have been added. Also in the positive column was the unemployment rate, which sunk to a fresh 50-year low, printing at 3.6% versus the expectation of 3.8%. But – the question marks around inflation in the US economy remain as Average Hourly Earnings missed expectations, coming in at an annualized 3.2% versus the expectation for 3.3%; and labor force participation also slowed, helping to buffer that attractive showing in the unemployment rate.

今天上午4月非农场发布美国的薪资数字，虽然标题数字相当强劲，但内部人员仍有疑问。美国经济在4月份增加了26.3万个就业岗位，预计增加了+ 190k。同样在积极栏目中的是失业率，它降至新的50年低点，打印率为3.6％，而预期为3.8％。但是 - 围绕美国经济通胀的问题仍然存在，因为平均每小时收益低于预期，年均增长3.2％，而预期为3.3％;劳动力参与率也有所放缓，有助于缓解失业率中的吸引力。

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At this point, the net response in the US Dollar has been one of weakness. After an initial flare of strength after the release of the headline number, at which point prices in DXY pushed-up to test the weekly high at 98.10, bears have come back to re-take control of the matter.

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US Dollar 30-Minute Price Chart: Rejected at the Weekly High

美元30分钟价格走势图：在每周高位被拒绝

The remainder of today will be filled with Fed-Speak: At 10:15 AM ET, we hear from Evans and thats followed by Mr. Richard Clarida at 11:30 AM. John Williams of the NY Fed speaks at 1:45, and Bowman offers comments at 3:00 PM. Later tonight at 7:45 PM ET, after markets have closed, we will hear from all of Bullard, Daly, Kaplan and Loretta Mester.

今天的剩余时间将充满Fed-Speak：在美国东部时间上午10:15，我们听到埃文斯及其后的事件，理查德克拉丽达先生在上午11:30。纽约联邦储备银行的约翰威廉姆斯在1:45发表讲话，鲍曼在下午3点发表评论。今晚晚些时候美国东部时间晚上7点45分，市场关闭后，我们将听到Bullard，Daly，Kaplan和Loretta Mester的所有消息。

Given this week‘s response around FOMC, and that color commentary could offer some much needed clarity. Price action in the aftermath of this week’s Fed rate decision has been rather messy. There have been a few clear themes, such as USD-strength, but in major risk areas such as US equities, more questions remains.

鉴于本周对FOMC的回应，这个颜色评论可以提供一些非常需要的清晰度。本周美联储利率决定之后的价格行动相当混乱。有一些明确的主题，如美元强势，但在美国股票等主要风险领域，仍存在更多问题。

In the US Dollar, the big question is whether bulls can continue to drive. The initial response around FOMC was a quick stop run through the weekly low, but that was followed by a pronounced bullish response that saw USD move right back towards prior highs. That theme lasted all the way into this mornings NFP which, at this point, appears to be a mere pullback in that bullish trend.

在美元中，最大的问题是公牛是否可以继续开车。 FOMC周围的初步反应是快速突破每周低点，但随后出现明显的看涨反应，美元回升至前期高位。这个主题一直持续到今天早上的非农就业数据，在这一点上，这似乎只是在这个看涨趋势中的回调。

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US Dollar Daily Price Chart

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US Equities: Is a Turn Nearing？

美国股市：即将成交？

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Perhaps the bigger question at the moment considering this weeks moves is whether or not US equities may be nearing a turn. Stocks put in a pronounced bearish response after the Wednesday Fed meeting, and that theme of weakness lasted through the open yesterday. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 tested below a bullish trend-line that makes up the support side of a rising wedge pattern, and this is a formation that will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals.

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S&P 500 Four-Hour Price Chart

标准普尔500指数四小时价格图表

The fact that this move appeared to emanate from a Federal Reserve that didnt come out as dovish as many had expected, and there could be considerable interest around reversal backdrops as we move deeper into Q2.

这一举动似乎来自美联储并没有作为鸽派出现正如许多人所预料的那样，随着我们进入第二季度的深入，逆转背景可能会引起相当大的兴趣。

The risk trade folded in Q4, and the big driver there appeared to be some comments from FOMC Chair, Jerome Powell, alluding to a series of future rate hikes out of the Fed. This took place in the opening days of Q4, and shortly after stocks had started to turn-lower with a full head of steam. That theme lasted throughout the final quarter of last year, with lows coming in around the Christmas holiday. And Q1 of this year saw a considerably more passive FOMC that did away with rate hike expectations for this year; and quickly – stocks had reversed course and started to gain as if it was 2013 all over again.

风险交易在第四季度折叠，而那里的大动力似乎是一些联邦公开市场委员会主席杰罗姆鲍威尔的言论暗指美联储未来一系列加息。这发生在第四季度的开放日，并且在股票开始转向下降之后不久，一股完整的蒸汽。这个主题持续到去年最后一个季度，圣诞节假期即将到来。而今年第一季度的FOMC则更加被动，取消了今年的加息预期;而且很快 - 股票已经逆转而且开始像2013年一样重新获得收益。

This has produced a V-shaped recovery off of the lows, and prices in the S&P 500 are back to testing those prior all-time-highs, taken from around the 2940 area on the chart.

这已经产生了从低点开始的V形复苏，以及价格在标准普尔500指数重新测试之前的历史最高点，取自图表中的2940区域。

S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

标准普尔500每日价格走势图

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The big question is whether sellers come back to re-take control of the matter. While the FOMC didnt exactly come out as hawkish, they were less dovish than what many market participants were expecting. Odds around future rate cuts have already narrowed: As looked at on Wednesday, there was a 65.5% probability of at least one rate cut by the end of this year. Now – those odds have slimmed down to 50.1%.

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In the S&P 500, a combination of a bearish reversal pattern, a struggle at the prior all-time-highs, combined with a Federal Reserve that came out less dovish than expected, and the theme for US equity pullbacks can grow more attractive. At this point, the big question is what happens upon re-tests of those prior highs around the 2940 area: A show of resistance can re-open the door for bearish scenarios, looking for a downside break of the rising wedge pattern.

在标准普尔500指数中，看跌逆转模式的组合，在此前的历史性奋斗 - 高点，加上美联储出现的温和程度低于预期，美国股市回调的主题可能会变得更具吸引力。在这一点上，最大的问题是在对2940区域的前期高点进行重新测试后会发生什么：阻力显示可以重新打开看跌情景的大门，寻找上升楔形模式的下行突破。

S&P 500 Hourly Price Chart

标准普尔500小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

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