US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Holding at Fresh Highs, Bend or Break？

US Dollar Talking Points:

美元谈话要点：

- The US Dollar set fresh 22-month-highs this week, rallying above resistance in an ascending triangle that‘s been building for the past six months. The breakout ran aggressively through yesterday’s trade, at which point resistance began to build around the 98.32, and this same level has held the highs again this morning, leading to pullback potential as markets trade into next week.

- 本周美元创下新的22个月新高，在一个上升的三角形区域上方阻力位于上方在过去的六个月里。突破在昨天的交易中大幅突破，此时阻力开始在98.32附近建立，同样的水平在今天早上再次触及高位，导致市场在下周交易时出现回调潜力。

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- This breakout in the US Dollar showed prominently with bearish breakouts in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Commodity currency pairs such as AUD/USD and USD/CAD may be more interesting for reversal scenarios in the US Dollar, as each market is grasping on to an element of support (AUD/USD) or resistance (USD/CAD) that can remain of interest for USD-reversal strategies.

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US Dollar Breaks Out to Fresh Highs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD to Fresh Lows

美元突破新高，欧元/美元和英镑兑美元跌至新低

The US Dollar has set a fresh 22-month high, making it an eventful week across FX markets despite a relative dearth of high-impact macro-economic data. A couple of themes that have been building for the past six months finally moved towards some element of resolution, as the US Dollar broke out to fresh highs and EUR/USD broke-down to 22-month lows. Curiously, there wasn‘t a direct driver pushing the move, and this brings questions around continuation potential as next week’s loaded economic calendar awaits.

The US Dollar is holding resistance at fresh yearly highs and yesterday‘s Daily candle printed as a doji/spinning top, indicative of indecision. When coupled with a really strong move ahead of that print, the potential for pullbacks begins to show, driven by the prospect of buying pressure stalling around levels that haven’t been traded at in almost two years.

美元在新的年度高位持有阻力位昨天的每日蜡烛印成十字星/陀螺，表示o优柔寡断。如果加上该印刷品之前的强劲走势，回调的可能性开始显现，这是由于购买压力的前景徘徊在近两年未交易的水平上。

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US Dollar Daily Price Chart

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Going into next week, the big question is whether USD buyers step-in to extend the move, forcing a bullish trend scenario to follow this week‘s breakout. And as looked at in yesterday’s webinar, there are a couple of nearby areas of interest to follow for such a theme: The closest runs from Fibonacci levels at 97.86 and 97.94. A bit-lower, that prior area of resistance remains around the 97.70-handle, and for support plays, traders may look as low as 97.50, creating a zone of potential for buyers to show-up to continue the bullish move.

进入下周，最大的问题是美元买家是否会介入以延长此举，迫使看涨趋势情景将跟随本周的突破。正如在昨天的网络研讨会上看到的那样，附近还有几个感兴趣的领域可以追随这样一个主题：最接近斐波那契水平位于97.86和97.94。稍微走低，先前的阻力位仍然在97.70左右，而对于支撑位，交易者可能看起来低至97.50，为买家创造了一个潜在的区域，以便继续看涨。

US Dollar Two-Hour Price Chart

美元两小时价格图表

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USD Strength – Trade it, or Fade it

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I had looked into this theme coming into this week, even asking the question in this weeks FX Setups whether this would be the week that US Dollar bulls finally broke-out. For that theme, I was looking at bearish breakout potential in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. But, for USD-weakness, I had also incorporated commodity currency pairs of AUD/USD and USD/CAD, and going into next week – those themes may remain of interest.

本周我已经调查了这个主题，甚至在本周的FX设置中询问这是否是美元多头最终突破的那一周。对于这个主题，我看到欧元/美元和英镑/美元的看跌突破潜力。但是，对于美元疲软，我还合并了澳元/美元和美元/加元的商品货币对，并进入下周 - 这些主题可能仍然令人感兴趣。

In the areas where USD-weakness has not worked, the bar is raised for next week. AUD/USD broke-down to range-support, digging in around the .7000 handle. For traders looking at fading USD-strength for next week, positing that this USD breakout will ultimately end up as a failure, range continuation scenarios can remain attractive in AUD/USD, in essence looking for some element of buyer defense around the .7000 big figure.

In美元疲软没有奏效的领域，下周提高了标准。澳元兑美元下跌至区间支撑位，大约在.7000左右。对于看下周美元走势疲软的交易者而言，假设美元突破将最终以失败告终，范围延续情景澳元兑美元仍然具有吸引力，实质上是在寻找买家防御的一些因素，围绕着.7000的大数字。

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AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

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USD/CAD Digs into Resistance at 1.3500

美元兑加元跌破阻力位1.3500

In USD/CAD, the pair broke-out to fresh three-month-highs on the heels of this week‘s Bank of Canada rate decision. Prices soon ran into the 1.3500 psychological level, and similar to USD-looked at above, put in an item of indecision with yesterday’s Daily bar. This can also keep the door open for reversal scenarios, and at the very least the risk management of the situation could be somewhat clear, as traders have todays highs holding around a key spot of resistance.

以美元/加元计算，该货币对突破至新的三个月 - 在本周的加拿大央行利率决定之后高位回落。价格很快进入了1.3500的心理水平，与美元看起来相似，与昨日的每日酒吧一样犹豫不决。这也可以为逆转情景敞开大门，至少情况的风险管理可能有些明显，因为交易者今天的高点围绕关键的阻力点。

USD/CAD Eight-Hour Price Chart

美元/加元8小时价格图表

USD-Strength on Full Display in EUR/USD, GBP/USD

美元/美元，英镑/美元全面显示美元强势

Meanwhile, that USD-breakout has brought fresh bearish breakouts to both EUR/USD and GBP/USD this week. EUR/USD broke below a range formation as Cable sunk below a descending triangle, and given the print of fresh lows, this can keep the door open for continuation scenarios next week, particularly for those looking to play bullish themes in the US Dollar.

与此同时，美元突破本周给欧元/美元和英镑/美元带来了新的看跌突破。由于英镑跌破三角形，欧元兑美元跌破区间形态，并且考虑到新的低点，这可以为下周的持续情况敞开大门，特别是那些希望在美元中看涨主题的人。 / p>

In EUR/USD, that area of prior support that had held the lows for almost six full months now becomes resistance potential. This runs from Fibonacci levels at 1.1187-1.1212, and re-tests there can open the door for bearish trend strategies next week.

在欧元兑美元中，先前支撑位已经持续近六个月的低点现在变成了阻力位。从斐波那契水平1.1187-1.1212开始，重新测试可以为下周的看跌趋势策略敞开大门。

EUR/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart

欧元/美元八小时价格走势图

GBP/USD Holding Lows Around Confluent Support

英镑/美元在汇合支撑位附近保持低位

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GBP/USD also broke below a big support zone this week, but this was an area that had held the lows for the prior two months as opposed to the previous six. This formation was looked at last week as a descending triangle had built-in GBP/USD near-term price action, with support showing from 1.2960-1.3000 and resistance coming from a descending trend-line. The next ‘big’ area of support on the chart was a confluent zone of Fibonacci levels around the 1.2900 handle, and that has since come in as support over the previous two trading days, leading to pullback potential. That prior zone of support now becomes potential resistance, and at this point, that zone is getting closer to confluence with the bearish trend-line taken off of the late-March swing-highs.

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GBP/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart

英镑/美元八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写