The Dollar is Back! Can the Dollar Spot Index Break 100？

As We Stand,

正如我们的立场，

The Greenback is on the move this week. Following a long weekend that left the EUR relatively range-bound, there was a rude awakening on Tuesday.

美元本周正在移动中。经过一个漫长的周末让欧元相对区间震荡，周二出现了粗暴的觉醒。

Hopes of the Eurozone finding support from consumer spending came to an abrupt end on Tuesday. The release of the Eurozone and EUs flash consumer confidence figures for April dealt the knockout blow.

欧元区希望消费者支出得到支撑，周二突然结束。欧元区和欧盟4月消费者信心指数的释放打击了淘汰赛。

According to the EU Commission, Eurozones consumer confidence index fell by 0.7 points to -7.9. Things were not much better for the EU, with the index falling by 0.6 points to -7.7.

据欧盟委员会称，欧元区消费者信心指数下跌0.7点至-7.9。欧盟的情况并没有好转，指数下跌0.6点至-7.7。

While both indicators stood well above their historical lows of -11.3 and -10.4 respectively, the combination of weak confidence and economic indicators ultimately contributed to the shift in sentiment.

虽然两项指标均远高于历史低点-11.3和-10.4，弱势信心和经济指标的结合最终促成了情绪的转变。

When considering private sector PMI numbers out of the Eurozone last week, the response was certainly a delayed one.

上周在考虑欧元区私营部门PMI数据时，回应肯定是延迟的。

Business expectations for the year ahead sat at one of the most pessimistic levels since late 2014. The IMF and ECB downward revision to growth forecasts, weaker demand, and political uncertainty contributed to the weaker sentiment.

未来一年的业务预期处于2014年底以来最悲观的水平之一。国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行向增长预测下调，需求疲软以及政治不确定性导致情绪较弱。

For the Eurozone, the auto sector continues to be highlighted as a major area of concern. U.S President Trump will have added to these concerns as the ever-present threat of tariffs linger…

对于欧元区而言，汽车行业继续成为关注的主要领域。美国总统特朗普将加剧这些担忧，因为不断出现的关税威胁仍然存在......

In contrast, economic indicators out of the U.S have delivered far better numbers, in spite of downward revisions to growth forecasts and the FEDs decision to hit pause on the neutralization button.

相比之下，美国以外的经济指标提供了更好的数字，尽管对经济增长预测的下调和美联储决定暂停中和按钮。

While ECB President Draghi painted a bleak picture of the economic outlook, FED Chair Powell was more optimistic. In spite of this, the Dollar had struggled.

虽然欧洲央行行长德拉吉描绘了经济前景的黯淡景象，但美联储主席鲍威尔更为乐观。尽管如此，美元一直在挣扎。

The Kiwi and Aussie Dollar,

新西兰元和澳元，

Looking across at the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar, both central banks may now be poised to cut rates. 1st quarter inflation figures released by the ABS and NZ Stats have led to a material reversal in both in recent days and there could be more on the horizon. Policy divergence is certainly beginning to make the Greenback more attractive. For now, the FEDs worst case scenario will likely be a hold on rates.

眺望澳元和澳元新西兰元，两个央行现在都可能准备降息。 ABS和新西兰统计数据公布的第一季度通胀数据导致最近几天和那里的物质出现逆转可能更多的是在地平线上。政策分歧无疑开始使美元更具吸引力。目前，美联储最糟糕的情况可能是维持利率不变。

Looking Ahead

展望未来

So, which central banks are likely to begin considering the need to deliver monetary policy support？

那么，哪些央行可能会开始考虑是否需要提供货币政策支持？

The ECB and the RBNZ are certainly amongst them. While the RBA has looked to hold off from delivering a materially dovish outlook, this could well change in a matter of weeks.

欧洲央行和新西兰联储当然是其中之一。虽然澳大利亚央行看起来不会提供实质性的温和前景，但这可能会在几周内发生变化。

As for the BoJ, things may even be worse when considering the effects of the ongoing trade war on demand for goods from Japan. Exports continue to slide and inflationary pressures are all but non-existent.

至于日本央行，在考虑时情况可能会更糟正在进行的贸易战对日本商品需求的影响。出口继续下滑，通胀压力几乎不存在。

The FED is due to deliver its May monetary policy decision next week. Solid corporate earnings and a decent set of economic indicators suggest that the FED may take a more optimistic view of the economy.

美联储将于下周公布5月货币政策决定。稳健的企业盈利和一套体面的经济指标表明，美联储可能会对经济持更乐观的态度。

While the statement may fall short of talking of a rate hike, the markets may need to begin pricing out a rate cut later in the year. This is likely to have already begun…

虽然声明可能没有谈及加息，市场可能需要开始对今年晚些时候的降息进行定价。这很可能已经开始......

A mass of economic data due out of the U.S this week and next could cause a readjustment, however.

然而，本周和下周美国出现的大量经济数据可能导致重新调整。

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Between now and the FOMC meeting, economic data due out of the U.S include durable goods orders, 1st quarter GDP numbers, inflation figures, consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI numbers.

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Softer than expected core PCE price index figures due out next Monday and this Fridays GDP numbers will likely set the tone.

下周一公布的核心PCE价格指数数据低于预期，本周五的国内生产总值数据可能定下基调。

Geopolitics

地缘政治

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Demand for the Dollar could also kick in should stability in the Middle East deteriorate. Theres also the risk of British PM Theresa May finding herself ousted from 10 Downing Street.

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Theres also the Spanish elections this weekend. The polls suggest that another hung parliament is on the cards.

本周末还有西班牙选举。民意调查显示，另一个悬而未决的议会正在酝酿之中。

Italian politics is already a concern. Uncertainty over Spain and Brexit will likely continue supporting demand for the Greenback and the Japanese Yen. Even more so the Greenback when considering the shift in sentiment towards the U.S economy.

意大利政治已成为一个问题。西班牙和英国脱欧的不确定性可能会继续支持对美元和日元的需求。考虑到情绪转向美国经济，美元更是如此。

This Morning,

今晨，

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.06% to $97.65. A slide in the Asian equity markets may well add fuel to the Dollar rally later in the day. European bank earnings due out later this morning will need to be monitored.

撰写本文时，美元现货指数上涨0.06％至97.65美元。亚洲股市的下滑可能会在当天晚些时候为美元反弹增添动力。将于今天上午晚些时候公布的欧洲银行盈利将需要加以监控。

U.S equities have returned to record highs, supported by better than expected earnings. In contrast, political uncertainty in both Italy and Spain and the ongoing wrangling over Brexit leaves the EUR in a precarious position. At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.08% to $1.1218.

美国股市已经回到历史新高，得益于好于预期的盈利。相比之下，意大利和西班牙的政治不确定性以及英国脱欧的持续争议使得欧元处于不稳定的地位。在撰写本文时，欧元下跌0.08％至1.1218美元。