US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

美国美元基本预测：牛势

• US Dollar may be buoyed by haven flows on exodus from risky assets

  美元可能会因出轨时的避风港流而受到鼓舞来自风险资产

• First-quarter US GDP, external data flow might inspire risk aversion

  美国第一季度GDP，外部数据流可能会激发风险厌恶情绪

• Dour tone in corporate earnings reports to reinforce defensive mood

  企业盈利报告中的沉寂语气加强了防御情绪

Check out the latest US Dollar forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

查看最新的美元预测并了解预期的结果推动价格到年中！

The US Dollar looks likely to cement its position as a vehicle for safety-seeking capital flows in the week ahead. Mounting evidence of a downturn in domestic economic activity is likely to keep Fed policy locked in wait-and-see mode even as it sours risk appetite and stokes haven demand.

美元看起来有可能巩固其作为未来一周寻求安全资本流动的工具的地位。国内经济活动下滑的证据越来越多，可能会使美联储的政策处于等待观望状态，即使它降低了风险偏好并刺激避险需求。

PMI surveys published Thursday put the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth at the weakest since September 2016. Next weeks GDP data is expected to confirm a slowdown in the first quarter. A print at 2 percent is expected but realized results may undershoot if the tenor of recent outcomes is sustained.

PMI调查公布周四将制造业和服务业增速放缓至2016年9月以来的最低水平。下周将公布的GDP数据将确认第一季度的放缓。如果最近结果的持续时间持续下去，预计会有2％的印数，但实现的结果可能会低于预期。

Meanwhile, external news-flow offers ample fodder for global slowdown speculation. The Bank of Canada will probably use the occasion of a policy announcement to worry aloud about downside risks. Incoming comments from UK Chancellor Hammond and SNB President Jordan may offer a similar message.

同时，外部新闻流量为全球经济放缓的猜测提供了充足的素材。加拿大央行可能会利用政策公告的机会大声担心下行风险。来自英国总理哈蒙德和瑞士央行行长乔丹的即将发表的评论可能会提供类似的信息。

Turning to the data front, Germanys IFO survey of business confidence and New Zealand trade statistics might add to the downbeat mood. Both countries are prodigious exporters and the drop in trade volumes starting around mid-2018 shows no signs of a meaningful recovery.

谈到数据方面，德国IFO对商业信心和新西兰贸易统计的调查可能会增加悲观情绪。这两个国家都是出口大国，从2018年中期开始的贸易量下降没有显示出有意义的复苏迹象。

The first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season will continue to in tandem. Over a third of the companies making up the bellwether S&P 500 equity index are due to show results. Data from Bloomberg based on those outcomes recorded thus far points to the first period of contraction in three years.

第一季度企业盈利报告季将继续同步。超过三分之一的公司构成领头羊标准普尔500指数的股票指数将显示结果。根据迄今为止记录的那些结果，彭博的数据显示了三年来的第一个收缩期。

Taken together, this seems likely to put markets in a defensive posture, with each consecutive reminder about the shaky macroeconomic backdrop helping to inspire de-risking. That might put a premium on the Greenbacks unrivaled liquidity, pushing it broadly higher.

总的来说，这似乎很可能市场处于防御态势，每次连续提醒人们关于不稳定的宏观经济背景，这有助于激发降低风险。这可能放在美钞无与伦比流动性溢价，将它广泛地更高。