Gold Price Chart Points to Losses After Major Top is Formed

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油价格谈话要点：

• Gold prices drop as yields recover, completing bearish chart pattern

  随着收益率复苏，黄金价格下跌，看跌图表模式

• Crude oil prices rise on API inventory data, but narrow range holds

  原油价格因API库存数据而上涨，但持有的范围较窄

• Morgan Stanley earnings report, Fed Beige Book, EIA data on tap

  摩根士丹利收益报告，美联储褐皮书，EIA数据随时开始

Gold prices fell as Treasury bond yields continued to recover, with the rate on the benchmark 10-year note hitting a one-month high. The latest leg higher in lending rates followed the April 10 release of minutes from the March FOMC meeting, which traders judged as less dovish than anticipated. That has undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal.

随着国债收益率持续复苏，黄金价格下跌，基准10年期国债价格触及一个月高位。最新的贷款利率在3月FOMC会议的4月10日公布会议纪要之后出现，交易商认为这一点比预期的温和。这破坏了黄金所代表的无息资产的吸引力。

Crude oil prices continued to consolidate in a familiar range that has contained momentum for a week. API inventory flow data showing US stockpiles shed 3.1 million barrels last week helped engineer an upswing, but the move ran out of steam in familiar territory just below the $65/bbl figure.

原油价格继续在一个已经包含一周动力的熟悉范围内盘整。 API库存流量数据显示上周美国库存减少了310万桶，帮助工程师实现了上涨，但此举在熟悉的领域失去了动力，仅低于65美元/桶的数据。

FED BEIGE BOOK, MORGAN STANLEY EARNINGS REPORT ON TAP

美联储BEIGE BOOK，MORGAN STANLEY在TAP上的收益报告

Looking ahead, the Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions and the first-quarter earnings report from Morgan Stanley will feed global growth bets. A worried tone on both fronts reflecting slowing global growth might make for a defensive mood. Oil prices are likely to follow stocks lower in this scenario. EIA inventory data may offer something of a counterbalance if APIs estimate proves telling.

展望未来，美联储关于区域经济状况的褐皮书和摩根士丹利第一季度财报将为全球增长提供支持。反映全球经济增长放缓的两条前沿担忧基调可能会带来防御性情绪。在这种情况下，油价可能跟随库存走低。如果API估计证明有效，EIA库存数据可能会提供一些抵消。

Gold‘s immediate response will depend on the relative magnitude of divergent moves in yields and the US Dollar. A supportive drop in rates tends to clash with downward pressure from a stronger Greenback as haven-seeking capital flows flock to the currency’s unrivaled liquidity in risk-off trade.

黄金的即时反应将取决于收益率和美元的不同变动的相对幅度。随着寻求避险资本流动涌向货币在避险交易中无可比拟的流动性，支撑率下降趋势与强势美元的下行压力相冲突。

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

查看最新的黄金和原油预测将了解第二季度会推动价格的因素！

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices finally completed the previously identified choppy Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern. Near-term support is in the 1260.80-63.76 area, but the H&S formation implies a measured downside objective near 1215.00. The patterns neckline – now at 1281.31 – has been recast as resistance. A daily close back above that puts the 1303.70-09.12 zone back into focus.

黄金价格终于完成了之前的一世令人头晕目眩的头肩（H＆S）顶部图案。近期支撑位于1260.80-63.76区域，但H＆S形成意味着下行目标接近1215.00。图案领口 - 现在在1281.31 - 已被重铸为抵抗。每日收盘价高于1303.70-09.12区域将重新成为焦点。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices continue to tread water near support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 area. A break above this and the 66.09-67.03 inflection zone following immediately thereafter opens the door for a test of the $70/bbl figure. Alternatively, turn below support at 60.39 would invalidate the uptrend from December lows, making for a bearish near-term bias. The first subsequent layer of support is in the 57.24-88 region.

63.59-64.88区域原油价格继续在支撑位转向阻力位附近徘徊。此后立即突破此区间以及66.09-67.03的拐点区域，为70美元/桶的数据进行了测试。或者，转跌至支撑位60.39将使12月低点的上升趋势无效，导致看跌近期偏见。第一个后续支持层位于57.24-88区域。

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

---由DailyFX.com的货币策略师Ilya Spivak撰写