Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breaks to Fresh 2019 Low - More in Store？

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

- Gold prices have set a fresh 2019 low this morning, and this comes even as the US Dollar struggles around the 97.00 level. Support is hanging, albeit by a thread, from the 38.2% retracement of the August-February bullish move, around the level of 1275.55 on the Gold Price Chart.

- 黄金价格今早已经创下2019年新低，即使美元在97.00附近徘徊也是如此。虽然受到线索的影响，但支撑位在八月至二月的看涨走势的38.2％回撤位上，大约在黄金价格走势图的1275.55附近。

- The big question is whether this bearish breakout has continuation potential, and that can be a difficult theme to continue without USD participation. This presents setups on either side of Gold prices.

- 这个大问题这种看跌突破是否具有延续潜力，如果没有美元参与，这可能是一个难以继续的主题。这将显示黄金价格两侧的设置。

Gold Prices Break Down – Set Fresh 2019 Low

黄金价格下跌 - 创下新的2019年低点

The US Dollar has not been particularly strong of late, but a trader might not know that by looking at a chart of Gold prices as the yellow-metal has been plummeting so far this week, extending a move that began around last weeks Wednesday releases of the ECB rate decision and FOMC meeting minutes.

美元并不特别由于本周到目前为止黄金价格一直在暴跌，一位交易员可能不知道这一点，但是交易者可能不知道黄金价格走势图，延续了上周三欧洲央行利率决定和FOMC会议周三发布的举动分钟。{/ p>

Going into that outlay, Gold prices had remained strong, angling-up for a test of Fibonacci resistance at 1310.53. But, since then, it‘s been largely a one-way show as Gold price action first staged a re-test of key 2019 support, and this was from a zone that’s been holding the lows in Gold since January. That support held through the open of this week; but bears were unwilling to wait any longer as a visible downside break began to show this morning, and at this point, Gold prices are trading at fresh 2019 lows.

进入这一支出后，黄金价格一直保持强势，对斐波那契阻力位1310.53进行测试。但是，从那以后，由于黄金价格行动首次重新测试了关键的2019年支撑位，这在很大程度上是一次单向表现，这是自1月以来一直处于黄金低点的区域。这个支持是在本周开放的时候举行的;但是熊市不愿再等待，因为今天早上开始出现明显的下行突破，此时，黄金价格正在新的2019年低点交易。

There is a bit of a support response around the 1275 level, however, as the price of 1275.55 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August-February bullish move in Gold prices.

有一点然而，由于1275.55的价格为38.2％F，因此在1275水平附近有支撑反应8月至2月黄金价格上涨看涨的bonacci回撤。

Gold Price Eight-Hour Chart

黄金价格八小时图表

Gold Price Descending Triangle Filling-In

黄金价格下跌三角形填充

In our piece last week, a case was investigated on each side of Gold prices. On the bullish side of the argument, prices had just re-engaged with a key zone of support – and if bulls did return, the door could remain open for the same theme of bullish continuation that drove Gold prices in the first six weeks of this year.

在上周的一篇文章中，对黄金价格的每一方都进行了调查。在论证看涨的一面，价格刚刚与一个关键的支撑区域重新接触 - 如果多头确实回归，那么大门可能会继续开放，因为同样的看涨延续主题在本周的前六周推动了黄金价格的上涨。

On the other side, prices had been filling-in a descending triangle formation over the prior month, consisting of horizontal support from the same 2019 zone to go along with a descending trend-line taken from February, March and now April swing-highs. That formation has already begun to work as sellers have pushed below the horizontal support looked at last Friday around the 1280.50 level.

另一方面，价格已经在上个月填补了下降的三角形形态，包括来自同一2019区域的水平支撑以及下降趋势线取自2月，3月和现在的4月摆动高点。这种形态已经开始起作用，因为卖家已经跌破了上周五1280.50附近的横向支撑位。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图表

Gold Downside Break – Missing a Driver

黄金下行突破 - 错过一名司机

Noticeably missing in this bearish breakout is a show of strength in the US Dollar. USD continues to struggle around the 97.00 level, making this breakdown in Gold all-the-more-impressive. As discussed coming into Q2, the US Dollar continues to carry a bullish backdrop given the ascending triangle thats been forming for the past five months. That theme appears to remain on pause, at least for now, as bulls have shown little desire to re-test the 97.71 high in DXY.

在这个看跌突破中明显缺失的是美元走强。美元继续在97.00附近徘徊，使得黄金的这种分解更加令人印象深刻。正如第二季度讨论的那样，鉴于过去五个月形成的上升三角形，美元继续看涨。这个主题似乎暂停，至少目前如此，因为多头没有表现出重新测试DXY中97.71高点的愿望。

This provides a bit of context on the move in Gold: If the US Dollar is going to continue to struggle at the 97.00 level or, perhaps even retrace a bit deeper within this longer-running ascending triangle, downside continuation strategies in Gold could be a challenge. However, if USD-bulls do come back to the table anytime soon, deeper supports in Gold are exposed around the 1260 and 1250 levels.

这提供了一些关于进入黄金：如果美元将继续在97.00水平挣扎，或者甚至可能在内部回撤更深较长期的上升三角形，黄金的下行延续策略可能是一个挑战。然而，如果美元多头很快就会重新回到谈判桌上，那么黄金的更深支撑位将在1260和1250附近暴露。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格走势图

Gold Price Near-Term Strategy

黄金价格近期策略

At this stage, a hold (as defined by a Daily close) of support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1275.55 could keep the door open for topside strategies in Gold. This would largely be driven by the expectation for the US Dollar to continue struggling around resistance, looking for a deeper retracement in USD in the second-half of April.

在此阶段，持有（由每日收盘定义）支持在1275.55处的38.2％斐波那契回撤可能为黄金的上行策略敞开大门。这在很大程度上取决于美元继续在阻力位附近徘徊，预计4月下半月美元将会进一步回撤的预期。

On the bearish side of Gold prices, traders have a few options of moving forward. The more conservative path would be one of patience, waiting for the Fibonacci level to get taken-out, at which point prior areas of short-term support could be re-utilized as resistance. The two obvious levels for such an approach would be around the prior horizontal area of 1280.50, and the Fibonacci level a bit-deeper around 1286.38.

在看跌方面黄金价格，交易商有一些前进的选择。更保守的路径是耐心，等待斐波纳契水平被取出，此时短期支持的先前区域可以被重新利用作为抵抗。这种方法的两个明显水平将在1280.50的先前水平区域附近，并且斐波那契水平在1286.38附近稍微深一些。

Gold Price Two-Hour Chart

黄金价格两小时图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

由James Stanley编制的图表