Yen May Gain as S&P 500 Turns Lower with Growth Fears in Focus

TALKING POINTS – YEN, US DOLLAR, S&P 500, AUSSIE DOLLAR, GLOBAL GROWTH

• Australian, Canadian, NZ Dollars fall with stocks in risk-off APAC trade

• S&P 500 technical cues warn risk aversion has scope for follow-through

• Incoming Fed-speak, US PPI data may pass without triggering fireworks

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars fell as risk appetite soured in Asia Pacific trade. The sentiment-geared commodity bloc currencies fell alongside regional shares. A discrete catalyst for the move was not apparent. Perhaps the passing of the weeks most eye-catching event risk may have triggered a return to focus on the macro backdrop, which looks increasingly alarming.

YEN, US DOLLAR MAY RISE AS GLOBAL MARKETS TURN DEFENSIVE

A quiet offering on the economic calendar in European hours may open the door for more of the same in the hours ahead. A handful of scheduled speeches form Fed officials as well as the US PPI report seem unlikely to derail momentum when North America joins the fray. Traders may find little in the way of fresh fodder here after yesterdays release of March FOMC meeting minutes and CPI data.

Stock index futures tracking major European and US benchmarks are pointing tellingly lower ahead of the opening bell, bolstering the case for a risk-off result. That may put a premium on the unrivaled liquidity offered by the US Dollar as well as encourage the unwinding of carry traders funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding Japanese Yen, sending both currencies upward.

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CHART OF THE DAY – NEAR-TERM S&P 500 CHART HINTS AT RISK-OFF BIAS

Technical cues warning of topping in the bellwether S&P 500 index – a proxy for broad-based market sentiment trends – remain intact. Zooming in to the four-hour chart confers a sense of urgency. Prices have already broken the bounds of the latest upswing from late-March lows, hinting that at least a downswing within the developing Rising Wedge pattern is due. If its lower boundary is subsequently breached, a longer term risk-off move is likely. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downturn.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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