Crude Oil Prices May Fall on ECB, FOMC Global Slowdown Fears

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

原油和黄金谈话要点：

• Crude oil prices lower on IMF outlook downgrade, Italy recession woes

  国际货币基金组织展望下调原油价格走低，意大利经济衰退困境

• Gold price rise stalls as risk aversion revives haven US Dollardemand

  随着避险情绪复苏避险美元需求，黄金价格上涨停滞

• ECB policy call, FOMC minutes may keep markets in a defensive mood

  欧洲央行政策呼吁，联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要可能使市场保持谨慎情绪

Crude oil prices fell alongside stocks yesterday amid a broad-based deterioration in risk appetite. The bulk of the move played out after the IMF unveiled a grim global economic outlook update (as expected). Earlier worries EU-US trade war risk and a downgrade of Italys growth outlook – along with its implications for renewed budgetary tensions between Rome and EU authorities – added to the downbeat mood.

原油价格昨日随着股市大幅下挫风险偏好恶化。在国际货币基金组织公布了严峻的全球经济前景更新（如预期）后，大部分举措都展开了。早些时候担心欧盟 - 美国的贸易战风险和意大利增长前景的下调 - 以及其对罗马和欧盟当局之间重新预算紧张局势的影响 - 增加了悲观情绪。

Gold prices managed early gains as the US Dollar built on prior losses, but the move stalled as sentiment unraveled. The risk-off move revived haven demand for the benchmark currency, sapping the appeal of anti-fiat assets and capping golds advance. A parallel drop in benchmark bond yields seemed to offer enough support to head off an outright selloff however.

黄金由于美元建立在先前的损失基础上，价格管理了早期涨幅，但随着市场情绪的消退，这一举措陷入停滞。避险行动重振了基准货币的避险需求，削弱了反法定资产的吸引力并限制了黄金的上涨。然而，基准债券收益率的平行下跌似乎提供了足够的支持以阻止彻底的抛售。

CRUDE OIL MAY FALL ON DOWNBEAT ECB, FOMC MINUTES

原油可能会在DOWNBEAT ECB，FOMC MINUTES上下跌

Looking ahead, the ECB monetary policy announcement as well as the release of minutes last month‘s FOMC meeting are in focus. Grim rhetoric speaking to policymakers’ deepening concerns about a downshift in the global business cycle may keep markets in a defensive stance. That seems to bode ill for oil. As before, the impact on gold will depend on the relative magnitude of divergent moves in bond rates and USD.

展望未来，欧洲央行货币政策公告以及上个月FOMC会议纪要的公布都是焦点。对政策制定者加深对全球商业周期下滑的担忧的严峻言论可能会使市场处于防御姿态。这似乎对石油不利。与以前一样，对黄金的影响将取决于债券利率和美元的不同变动的相对幅度。

Elsewhere, industrial production figures from Italy, France and the UK as well as the monthly UK GDP report may inform global growth bets. US CPI is also on tap. A tendency to disappoint on recent macro news-flow warns of soft results that might pressure sentiment further. Finally, EIA inventory data is seen showing stockpiles added 2.5 million barrels last week. API flagged a larger 4.09-million-barrel rise yesterday.

此外，来自意大利，法国和英国的工业生产数据以及每月英国GDP报告可能会为全球增长预测提供信息。美国的CPI也随之而来。最近的宏观新闻流动令人失望的趋势警告可能会进一步压低市场情绪的疲软结果。最后，EIA库存数据显示上周库存增加了250万桶。 API标志着更大的4.09亿桶昨天是这样。

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

查看最新的黄金和原油预测，了解第二季度会推高价格的因素！

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Broadly speaking, gold price positioning still suggests a bearish Head and Shoulders topping pattern is taking shape. Confirmation of the setup is still pending and would require a break below the patterns neckline (now at 1283.53). A daily close above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 area and the subsequent falling trend line set from the February 20 high – now at 1312.41 – is needed to invalidate near-term bearish cues.

从广义上讲，黄金价格定位仍然暗示看跌头肩顶部形态正在形成。确认设置仍然未决，需要在模式领口（现在1283.53）之下休息。每日收盘于1303.70-09.12区域的阻力位以及随后的下跌趋势线从2月20日的高点 - 现在位于1312.41 - 需要使近期看跌线索无效。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices put in a Harami candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 area. This is a sign of indecision that may precede a downturn. A daiyy close below the $60/bbl figure would break the uptrend from late December and expose 57.24-88 zone. Alternatively, a push above 64.88 is followed almost immediately by another layer of resistance in the 66.09-67.03infection zone.

原油价格位于63.59-64.88区域的支撑位阻力位下方的Harami烛台形态。这是在经济衰退之前可能出现犹豫不决的迹象。收盘价低于60美元/桶的数据将突破12月底的上升趋势并暴露57.24-88区域。或者，在66.09-67.03感染区内几乎立即触及64.88以上的推动。

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