US Dollar Weekly Forecast: ECB Meeting, US Inflation, Fed Minutes on Tap

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

美元基本面预测：中性

- The US Dollar will deal with several important data releases over the coming week, including UK GDP, the ECB meeting, US inflation data, and the Fed meeting minutes.

- 美元将在未来一周内处理几项重要数据，包括英国国内生产总值，欧洲央行会议，美国通胀数据以及美联储会议纪要。

- If the latest Brexit developments help avoid a no deal, “hard Brexit” outcome, then a relief rally by GBPUSD could weigh on the broader DXY Index in the near-term.

- 如果英国脱欧最近的事态发展有助于避免无交易，“英国脱欧”的结果，那么就会有所缓解英镑兑美元的反弹可能在近期内对更广泛的DXY指数构成压力。

- The IG Client Sentiment Indexshows that retail traders continue to sell the US Dollar during its rise.

- IG客户情绪指数显示零售交易商在其上涨期间继续卖出美元。

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

使用DailyFX交易指南查看我们对欧元和其他主要货币的长期预测。

US Dollar Rates Week in Review

美元汇率周回顾

After a strong end to March, the US Dollar continued its bullish run into April and Q219. Gaining ground against all but two of the major currencies, the DXY Index added another 0.16% this past week. The only two holdouts were AUDUSD (0.13%) and GBPUSD (0.02%).

在3月强势结束后，美元继续看涨，进入4月和Q219。除了两种主要货币之外，DXY指数在过去一周又上涨了0.16％。唯一的两个阻力是澳元兑美元（0.13％）和英镑兑美元（0.02％）。

EURUSD barely moved on the week (-0.02%). NZDUSD was the biggest loser on the week (-1.09%), while USDJPY‘s gains (0.78%) largely mirrored the rise in the US Treasury 10-year yield as well as continued progression higher by US equity markets. The March US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday helped buoy the greenback, serving as another piece of evidence that the economy didn’t keel over in Q119.

欧元兑美元本周几乎没有变动（-0.02％）。纽元兑美元是本周最大的输家（-1.09％），而美元兑日元的涨幅（0.78％）在很大程度上反映了美国10年期美国国债收益率的上涨以及美国股市继续走高。周五公布的3月份美国非农就业人数报告帮助提振了美元，这是另一个证据表明经济在2009年第9季度没有出现过上涨。

March US Inflation Due Wednesday; Inflation Expectations Continue to Fall

3月美国通货膨胀到期;通胀预期继续下降

The March US Consumer Price Index reporton Wednesday is due to show a rebound in price pressures, in line with the continued rebound in energy prices as well as the improved streak of US economic data. According to Bloomberg News, headline CPI is expected in at +1.8% from +1.5%, and Core CPI is due in to hold at 2.1% (y/y). Overall, the readings are due short the Federal Reserves medium-term target of +2%.

周三3月美国消费者价格指数报告显示价格压力反弹，与能源价格持续反弹以及改善连续的美国经济数据。据彭博社报道，整体消费者物价指数预计将从+ 1.5％上升至+ 1.8％，核心消费物价指数将维持在2.1％（同比）。总的来说，读数应该是联邦储备中期的缩短获得+ 2％。

The rise in energy prices since the end of December have filtered through to US inflation expectations (Crude Oil prices up by +12.5% over the past four-weeks), serving as a contemporaneous confirmation of the rise in Q119 US growth expectations in recent weeks (particularly since the March Fed meeting). These observations suggest that headline CPI figures should remain supported in the near-term.

自12月底以来能源价格上涨已经过滤到美国通胀预期（原油价格上涨+ 12.5％）过去四周），作为对最近几周美国经济增长预期上升的同期确认（特别是自3月美联储会议以来）。这些观察结果表明，短期CPI数据应在短期内得到支持。

March Fed Meeting Minutes on Wednesday

3月美联储会议纪要周三

Speaking of the March Fed meeting, the minutes from said meeting are due out on Wednesday as well. While neither on its own would have been too significant, both the decision toeliminate the potential of a 25-bps rate hike this year and to end the balance sheet reduction process served to catch traders off-guard.This considerably dovish shift in tone and policy will be explored in greater detail this week; given the volatility and US Dollar weakness that initially emerged around the actual March Fed meeting, it would not be a surprise if similar reactions emerged, if only temporarily, when the minutes are released.

说到三月美联储会议，会议纪要也将于周三公布。虽然两者本身都不会过于重要，但是今年加息25个基点以及结束资产负债表减少过程的决定都有助于让交易者措手不及。这种相当温和的语气和政策转变将在本周更详细地探讨;鉴于最初在3月份美联储实际会议期间出现的波动性和美元疲软，如果出现类似的反应（如果只是暂时的话，会议纪要被释放），也不会感到意外。

US President Trump Tweets About the Fed

美国总统特朗普对美联储发表推文

A new issue for the US Dollar may be US President Donald Trump‘s more aggressive foray into challenging the Federal Reserve’s independence. Despite publicly chastising the Feds low interest rate policy and its QE programs as far back as 2011, a different tone emerged this Friday when President Trump said that “the Fed should drop rates,” and that in terms of quantitative tightening, it should actually now be quantitative easing.

美元兑美元的新问题可能是美国总统唐纳德特朗普对挑战美联储独立性的更为激进的尝试。尽管早在2011年公开谴责美联储低利率政策及其量化宽松计划，但在周五特朗普总统表示“美联储应该降息”时，出现了不同的基调，而且就数量紧缩而言，现在应该是量化宽松。

External Forces to Hold Sway: April ECB Meeting; Brexit Latest

外部势力控制：4月欧洲央行会议;英国脱欧最新

Beyond the busy week on deck for the US Dollar, there are plenty of exogenous forces in play that will influence price action across USD-pairs. On the economic calendar, nothing will garner more attention this week than the April ECB meeting. In the wake of the March meeting where the third TLTRO program was announced, the prospects of a deposit rate hike in 2019 have evaporated. Well be looking for more information on recent discussions from ECB officials about the impact of negative interest rates on the banking sector.

除了美元甲板繁忙的一周之外，还有很多外生因素会影响美元对的价格走势。在经济日历上，本周没有什么比4月份的欧洲央行会议更能引起关注。在宣布第三个TLTRO计划的3月会议之后，2019年存款加息的前景已经消失。正在寻找有关欧洲央行官员最近关于负利率对银行业影响的讨论的更多信息。

Elsewhere, a great deal of attention will remain on the latest Brexit developments as the April 12 deadline inches closer. As UK Prime Minister and Tory party leader Theresa May meets with Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn, reports have been pessimistic about a “national unity” agreement emerging from UK parliament. Another extension is possible, but that would require the UK to participate in EU parliamentary elections. If a Brexit is secured, so long as it is not a no deal, “hard Brexit,” then GBPUSD strength may spillover and weigh down the DXY Index overall.

在其他方面，最新的英国退欧将继续关注随着4月12日截止日期的临近发展。正如英国首相兼保守党领袖特蕾莎·梅与工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾会面，有报道对英国议会提出的“民族团结”协议持悲观态度。另一种延伸是可能的，但这需要英国参加欧盟议会选举。如果英国脱欧获得担保，只要它不是没有交易，“硬脱欧”，那么英镑兑美元的强势可能会溢出并压低整体的DXY指数。

US Dollar Futures Positioning Holding Net-Long

美元期货定位持有网络

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC‘s COT for the week ended April 2, speculators increased their net-long US Dollar positions to 28.9K contracts, up from the 25.3K net-long contracts held in the week prior. Net-long US Dollar positioning has oscillated since the start of the year, but there haven’t been any significant changes: traders held 32.4K net-long contracts on January 1.

最后，根据CFTC截至4月2日当周的COT，投机者增加了他们的净多头美国美元持仓量为28.9万合约，高于前一周持有的25.3万净多头合约。自开始以来，净多头美元的定位一直在震荡，但没有任何重大变化：交易商在1月1日持有32.4万净多头合约。

FX TRADING RESOURCES

外汇交易资源

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

无论您是新手还是经验丰富的交易员，DailyFX都有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举办的分析和教育网络研讨会;交易指南，以帮助您提高交易表现，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写