Top 5 Events: March US Consumer Price Index & USDJPY Price Outlook

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The March US Consumer Price Index is due on Wednesday, April 10 at 12:30 GMT.

- 3月美国消费物价指数将于4月10日星期三格林尼治标准时间12:30公布。

{2}

- Retail traders continue to sell US Dollar rallies versus the British Pound and the Euro.

- 零售交易商继续卖出美元兑英镑和欧元反弹。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林尼治标准时间11点30分加入我的FX周向网络研讨会，在那里我们讨论顶级活动未来几天的风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Consumer Price Index (MAR)

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT |美元消费物价指数（MAR）

The March US Consumer Price Index report is due to show a rebound in price pressures, in line with the continued rebound in energy prices as well as the improved streak of US economic data (Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1‘19 growth estimate is now 2.1%, up from 0.2% in the second week of March). Nevertheless, the readings are due short the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target of +2%.

3月美国消费者物价指数报告显示价格压力反弹，与能源价格持续反弹以及美国经济数据连续增长（亚特兰大联储GDPNow第19季度增长预测为2.1％，高于3月第二周的0.2％）。尽管如此，美联储的中期目标仍为+2％。

According to Bloomberg News, headline CPI is expected in at +1.8% from +1.5%, and Core CPI is due in to hold at 2.1% (y/y). The inflation report on Wednesday will only underscore the belief that the Fed is due to keep policy on hold for the foreseeable future; Fed funds futures are pricing in a 39% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in October and a 56% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by December.

据彭博新闻报道，整体消费者物价指数预计从+ 1.5％上升至+ 1.8％ ，核心CPI预计将维持在2.1％（同比）。周三的通胀报告只会强调美联储应该在可预见的未来保持政策搁置的信念;联邦基金期货定价10月份降息25个基点的可能性为39％，到12月降息25个基点的可能性为56％。

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

对观察：DXY指数，EURUSD，USDJPY，黄金

USDJPY Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2017 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

USDJPY价格走势图：每日时间表（2017年12月至2019年4月）（图1）

Price action over the past week has remained constructive, seeing USDJPY break the downtrend from the March swing highs. The uptrend is facing its first test as the calendar turns to the second week of March, as price settled at 111.70 – a tick higher than the March 20 bearish outside engulfing bar high at 111.69; a break down through the low at 110.80. Traders should watch for continuation into the March at 112.14; failure below the daily 21-EMA at 111.09 would suggest the breakout attempt failed.

过去一周的价格走势仍然具有建设性，看到美元兑日元突破3月摆动高点的下行趋势。随着日历转向3月的第二周，上升趋势面临第一次测试，因为价格收于111.70 - 高于th3月20日看跌外围吞没高点111.69;在110.80低点突破。交易者应注意继续进入3月112.14;在每日21-EMA低于111.09的失败表明突破尝试失败。

{11}

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDJPY (April 5, 2019) (Chart 2)

{11}

Retail trader data shows 37.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.7 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.8% lower than yesterday and 19.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 36.6% higher from last week.

零售交易商数据显示，37.1％的交易者为净多头，交易者持股比例为1.7比1.交易者净多头比下跌8.8％昨日较上周下跌19.0％，而交易商净空头数较昨日下跌4.5％，较上周上涨36.6％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆势观点为了挤压市场情绪，而且交易商净空头显示美元兑日元价格可能继续上涨。交易商的净空头比昨天和上周还要短，目前市场情绪和近期变化的结合使我们看到美元兑日元看涨的逆势交易偏好。

FX TRADING RESOURCES

外汇交易资源 p>

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

无论您是新手还是经验丰富的交易员，DailyFX都有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举办的分析和教育网络研讨会;交易指南，以帮助您提高交易表现，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写