Oil Forecast Clouded by Overbought Signal, Jump in Crude Inventories

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

原油价格谈判点

Oil pulls back from a fresh monthly-low ($62.99) following an unexpected jump in U.S. Crude Inventories, but current market conditions may keep oil prices afloat as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in overbought territory.

美国原油库存意外跳升后油价从新的月度低点（62.99美元）回落，但当前市场状况可能如此由于相对强弱指数（RSI）处于超买区域，因此油价维持下跌。

Oil Forecast Clouded by Overbought Signal, Jump in Crude Inventories

石油预测因超买信号而蒙上阴影，原油库存增加

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At the same time, updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly field production of crude oil climbing to a fresh record of 12,200K b/d in the week ending March 29, and the developments may push the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to regulate the energy market throughout 2019 as the group plans to hold a tentative Joint Ministerial Monitory Committee (JMMC) meeting on May 19.

同时，向上美国能源情报署（EIA）的报告显示，在截至3月29日的一周内，原油每周原油产量攀升至12,200,000桶/天的新纪录，这些发展可能推动石油输出国组织（欧佩克）该集团计划于5月19日举行暂定的联合部长监督委员会（JMMC）会议，以及其盟友在整个2019年对能源市场进行监管。

Fresh remarks from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo suggest the group and its allies are in no rush to boost production as the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has helped to ‘return balance to the market and reintroduced a long-absent element of stability,’ but U.S. President Donald Trump may continue to respond to higher energy prices as he tweets ‘world markets are fragile, price of oil getting too high.’

欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德的新发言巴金多表示，该集团及其盟友并不急于提高产量，因为“合作宣言”有助于“重新平衡市场并重新引入长期缺乏的稳定因素”，但美国总统唐纳德特朗普可能会继续回应由于推文的世界市场很脆弱，石油价格过高，能源价格上涨。

With that said, it remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will curb production beyond the June deadline as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) notes that ‘world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.24 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections, but the current market conditions keep the topside targets on the radar as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bullish formations from late-2018. Moreover, recent developments in the RSI suggest the bullish momentum is gathering pace as the oscillator breaks above 70 and sits in overbought territory for the first time this year.

据说，欧佩克及其盟国是否会遏制它还有待观察超过6月截止日期的生产最多r月度石油市场报告（MOMR）指出，世界石油预计需求量将增长1.24百万桶/日，与上个月的预测持平，但由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）延续了2018年末的看涨形态，目前的市场状况保持了上行目标。此外，近期RSI的发展表明看涨势头正在加速，因振荡指标突破70并且今年首次处于超买区域。

CL1 Daily Chart

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• Crude extends the advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) following the failed attempt to close below the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area, with the price for oil coming up against the Fibonacci overlap around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement).

  原油价格在下方收盘失败后从2018年低点（42.36美元）延伸55.10美元（增长61.8％）至55.60美元（61.8％回撤位）区域，对斐波纳契油价上涨约62.70美元（61.8％回撤位）至63.70美元（38.2％回撤位）。

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• Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it sits in overbought territory, but may see a textbook sell-signal emerge should the oscillator fall below 70, which may spur a move back towards the $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) area.

  当RSI处于超买区域时会密切关注RSI，但如果振荡器跌破70，可能会看到教科书出现卖出信号，这可能刺激回到$ 59.00（61.8％回撤位）至$ 59.70（50％回撤位）区域。