Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook: NZD/USD Rebuffed at 2019 Range Resistance

• Updated weekly technicals on Kiwi (NZD/USD)– price rally rejected at yearly range high

  更新了关于新西兰元（NZD / USD）的每周技术数据 - 年度范围内的高价反弹

• Check out our 2019 projections in our Free DailyFX USD Trading Forecasts

  在我们的免费DailyFX美元交易预测中查看我们的2019年预测

• Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

  加入迈克尔星期一中午12点30分举行的Live Weekly Strategy网络研讨会

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Kiwi is up more than 2.4% against the US Dollar from the yearly lows with the exchange rate reversing sharply from the yearly open range-highs this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart heading into the close. Review this weeks Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

在本系列中，我们缩小并查看更广泛的技术图片，以更多地了解我们的趋势。新西兰元兑美元汇率从年度低点上涨超过2.4％，汇率从本周年度开盘涨幅中大幅反转。这些是新西兰元/美元周线图上的最新目标和失效水平。回顾本周的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

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Notes: In last months NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that, “the Kiwi range continues and the longer this holds, the bigger the break. From a trading standpoint, price is now coming off the range highs and until we clear 6707-6941 – the medium-term outlook remains neutral.” Kiwi remains within the confines of this critical zone with price reversing sharply off range extremes this week on the back of the FOMC interest rate decision.

注：在上个月NZD / USD每周技术展望中，我们注意到，“新西兰范围这种情况持续的时间越长，休息时间就越大。从交易的角度来看，价格现在已经远离区间高位，直到我们清除6707-6941 - 中期前景仍然保持中立。”新西兰仍然处于这个关键区域的范围内，价格在本周的极端范围内急剧逆转。 FOMC利率决定的回归。

A high was registered at 6939 on Wednesday before reversing sharply to close back below the yearly high-day close at 6889. Note that weekly momentum has continued to maintain a strong posture below the 60-mark and further highlights the threat to the near-term advance. That said, key resistance remains at 6931/41 where the 50% retracement converges on the 200-week moving average and the objective yearly opening-range highs. A breach / close above is needed to validate a breakout targeting the 61.8% retracement at 7050 and the upper parallel / 2018 open at 7094.

周三高位于6939，然后急剧反转，收于6889的年度高点收盘价下方。注意每周势头有继续保持在60大关以下的强势态势，并进一步突显近期上涨的威胁。尽管如此，关键阻力仍然在6931/41，其中50％的回撤趋势收敛于200周均线和目标年度开盘高点。违规需要收盘才能确认突破目标是7050处的61.8％回撤位和上方平行线/ 2018年位于7094位。

Support rests with the 2018 trendline, currently around 6740, with key support / broader bullish invalidation steady at the yearly open at 6705. Weakness beyond this threshold risks substantial Kiwi losses with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement of the late-2018 advance at 6633 and the 2018 low-week close at 6507.

支撑位于2018年趋势线，目前约为6740，年度开盘时的关键支撑/更广泛的看涨失效稳定在6705.超出此阈值的弱点可能导致新西兰元大幅下挫，这种情况的目标是2018年末的668点回撤的61.8％回撤位，以及2018年的低周收盘价6507点。 / p>

For a complete breakdown of Michaels trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

有关迈克尔斯交易策略的完整细分，请查看他关于构建交易策略的技术分析基础系列

Bottom line: Kiwi is responding to confluence resistance / the yearly opening-range highs and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable sub-6941. From trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops and be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion. Ill publish an updated NZD/USD Technical Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action.

底线：猕猴桃正在应对汇合阻力/年度开放区间高点，并使直接前进的弱势分6941。从交易的角度来看，这是一个减少长期暴露/提高保护性止损的好地方，并且可以寻找可能的价格疲惫。一旦我们进一步明确近期价格行动，我就会发布更新的新西兰元/美元技术展望。

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

即使是经验最丰富的交易员也需要时刻提醒 - 避免这些错误在您的交易中

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD / USD Trader Sentiment

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.42 (41.3% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示，交易者净卖空新西兰元/美元 - 该比率为-1.42（交易者持有的比例为41.3％） - 弱看涨读数

• Traders have remained net-short since March 14th; price has moved 0.6% higher since then

  交易商自3月14日以来一直保持净空头;此后价格已上涨0.6％

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• Short positions are 23.6% lower than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少23.6％，比上周增加3.6％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Kiwi prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed NZD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来观察人群情绪，交易商净空头表明新西兰元价格可能继续上涨。但是，tra与昨天相比净空头较少，但上周的净空头较多，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度出发进一步加息新西兰元/美元交易偏差。

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Relevant New Zealand / USEconomic Data Releases

相关的新西兰/美国经济数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。在我们的免费指南中了解更多关于我们如何交易新闻的信息！

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

以前的每周技术图表

• Euro (EUR/USD)

  欧元（欧元/美元）

• Crude Oil (WTI)

  原油（WTI）

• Gold (XAU/USD)

  黄金（XAU / USD）

• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

  加拿大元（美元/加元）

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• British Pound (GBP/USD)

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• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

  澳大利亚元（澳元/美元）

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

---作者：Michael Boutros，技术DailyFX货币策略师