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Abstract:The US Dollar trimmed losses in illiquid trading conditions on what seemed to be US-EU trade war fears. AUD/USD may fall on the RBA meeting
Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Point
US markets were offline for holiday, resulting in less liquid trading conditio
Risk aversion on US-EU trade war fears boosted USD, trimming prior losse
AUD/USD may decline on the RBA minutes after resistance kept prices at bay
Find out what retail traders equities buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend!
The US Dollar had a mixed session on Monday as Wall Street closed for the Presidents Day holiday, resulting in less liquid trading conditions. Gains towards the latter half of the session helped trim previous losses that could have resulted in a much worse day for the Greenback.
This seemed to be triggered by a partial bout of risk aversion as Nikkei 225 futures sunk alongside the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars. A catalyst may have been threats from the European Union to retaliate against tariffs that the US may impose on the local automotive industry.
While European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker noted that he believed US President Donald Trump would keep his word not to impose tariffs, Spokesman Margaritis Schinas struck a more defensive tone. Meanwhile, the regional bloc is preparing around $23b in retaliatory tariffs should the conditions warrant such a measure.
Looking ahead, Asia Pacific markets could have a more mixed start as S&P 500 futures are little changed. With RBA meeting minutes on the docket, the Australian Dollar could be vulnerable to losses if the details within the report underpin the central banks shift away from favoring a hike down the road.
AUD/USD Technical Analysi
Declines in AUD/USD on Monday reinforced near-term resistance mentioned in this weeks technical outlook. This may set the stage for a decline to support which is a range between 0.7081 to 0.7054. A push above resistance exposes the highs achieved in January.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Asia Pacific Trading Session Economic Event
** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here
Disclaimer:
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The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% against the US Dollar after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential rate hikes. This coincided with a recovery in Asian markets, aided by stronger Chinese stocks. With the July FOMC minutes already pointing to a September rate cut, the US Dollar might edge higher into the weekend.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, staying just below the seven-month high of 0.6798 reached on Monday. The downside for the AUD/USD pair is expected to be limited due to differing policy outlooks between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve. The RBA Minutes indicated that a rate cut is unlikely soon, and Governor Michele Bullock affirmed the central bank's readiness to raise rates again if necessary to combat inflation.
JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.