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Abstract:Crude oil prices may continue to fall after hitting a three-week low if disappointing UK GDP data amplifies fears about a global slowdown in economic
Crude oil prices paused to digest losses Friday following a brisk, sentiment-driven drop. Gold prices rose as yields continued to drift lower amid lingering global slowdown fears. The rate on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond hit a weekly low, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.
UK GDP DATA MAY SOUR SENTIMENT, WEIGHING ON CRUDE OIL
Fourth-quarter UK GDP data is in the spotlight from here, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown. Output is expected to have added 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2018, down from 0.6 percent in the three months to September. The on-year trend growth rate is projected to tick down to 1.4 percent.
UK economic news-flow has notably deteriorated relative to analysts baseline projections recently, opening the door for a disappointing outcome. That might compound concerns about a downturn in the global business cycle, sending crude oil lower alongside other risky assets.
The implications of such an outcome for gold are bit more convoluted. Support from a further drop in bond yields may be countervailed if haven-seeking capital flows buoy the US Dollar, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSI
Gold prices continue to stall above a dense layer of support underpinned by a rising trend line set from mid-November. A break through this barrier – confirmed on a daily close below 1294.10 – would expose the support shelf at 1276.50 next. Alternatively, a push above chart inflection point resistance at 1323.60 sets the stage for a challenge of the pivotal 1357.50-66.06 region.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSI
Crude oil prices are edging lower after producing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern as expected, hitting a three-week low. From here, a daily close below support in the 49.41-50.15 area opens the door for a decline toward the 42.05-55 zone. Alternatively, a reversal back above the February 4 high at 55.75 sees the next layer of resistance in the 57.96-59.05 region.
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Gold prices have been highly volatile, trading near record highs due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Last week's weak US employment data, with only 114,000 jobs added and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts, boosting gold's appeal. Tensions in the Middle East further support gold as a safe-haven asset. Technical analysis suggests that gold prices might break above $2,477, potentially reachin
The USD/JPY pair rises to 154.35 during the Asian session as the Yen strengthens against the Dollar for the fourth consecutive session, nearing a 12-week high. This is due to traders unwinding carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike and bond purchase tapering. Recent strong US PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy. Investors await US GDP and PCE inflation data, indicating potential volatility ahead of key central bank events.
The USD/JPY is expected to rise. The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates between 0 and 0.1% and continue its bond purchase plan but may reduce purchases and raise rates in July based on economic data. Technically, the pair is trending upward with resistance at $158.25 and $158.44, and support at $157.00, $156.16, and $155.93.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.