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Abstract:Most economists expect to see a 15 basis-point move to 0.25% today
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Westpac's Bill Evan believes last week's inflation reality check of 5.1 percent is enough to move rates in May.
RBA has avoided raising rates during federal elections.
Most economists expect the Reserve Bank to raise rates for the first time in eleven years today.
While most analysts expect a 15 basis point move to 0.25 percent, some zealots expect a 40 basis point move.
ARET chief economist Brian Parker expects the RBA to raise rates by 25 basis points every month this year.
But, given the RBA's lack of courage, John Hawkins, a senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, suspects the waiting game will continue.
Concerns about raising rates during an election campaign will also be on the minds of the RBA today.
Interested in future inflation?
Concerned about future inflation, Hawkins believes the RBA would prefer the market do some of the heavy lifting.
Given the low oil prices and the budget petrol price relief, the RBA may be second-guessing its inflation forecast for the June quarter.
With the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar, Hawkins reminds investors that some supply chain issues and skilled labour shortages are expected to ease.
“Unless wage growth picks up significantly, inflation may start to fall on its own, without the Reserve Bank having to raise rates,” Hawkins noted.
Time for emergency rates is over.
Regardless, some economists believe the time for emergency 0.10 percent interest rates has passed.
Westpac's chief economist Bill Evan is among those who think last week's inflation reality check of 5.1 percent is enough to justify raising rates in May.
Disclaimer:
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