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Abstract:Asia Pacific stock markets saw risk appetite drain away somewhat as some disappointing trade reports crossed the wires
Asian Stocks Talking Points:
Mainboards were mostly lower in the region
Hopes for a near-term trade settlement between the US and China have taken a little knock
In the meantime focus returns to Washington where the Fed is expected to be dovish
Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currencys chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
Asia Pacific stocks were mostly lower Wednesday as new uncertainties over trade between the US and China tempered risk appetite.
Much of these seem to have their roots in a Bloomberg article which reported that US authorities are worried China may be pushing back against their demands. Chinese negotiators meanwhile are reportedly concerned for their part that they have not received any assurances that tariffs recently imposed would be lifted if a deal were struck.
Sure enough the Shanghai Composite was down 1% in the middle of its afternoon session. The Hang Seng had slipped 0.5% and the ASX 200 0.3%. The Nikkei 225 was in the green but only just.
The markets are also focused of course on this months monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve which will give its decision on Wednesday (early Thursday Asia Pacific time). A degree of dovishness is expected from the US central bank, with perhaps fewer rate increases expected this year.
Even so the US Dollar was generally stronger through the session as those trade worries prompted a haven bid for the currency. That bid wasnt universal by any means however. Gold prices slipped on that stronger greenback,
USD/JPY remained within the daily-chart uptrend which has characterized trade for most of this year.
The key psychological resistance level of JPY112 remains too much for this market on a daily-closing basis however, and the bulls need to press their case soon or risk a slip back below that downtrend line.
Crude oil prices slipped back from four-month highs as growth concerns returned to weigh on demand forecasts.
Wednesday‘s global economic data schedule will offer February’s official inflation figures from United Kingdom, with US mortgage application and crude oil inventory levels coming up too.
Disclaimer:
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, boosted by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth in Japan, raising hopes for a BoJ rate hike. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair found support from higher US Treasury yields, though gains may be capped by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
The aftermath of the Japanese yen's strengthening has manifested in significant dips across multiple markets, including equities, commodities, and various currencies. The yen has erased all its 2024 losses against the dollar, moving towards the 145.00 mark. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since March, hovering above the $103 mark.
Fed officials have indicated they are prepared to cut interest rates if necessary, though there is no immediate need. This dovish stance has been viewed positively by the markets, leading to increased buying pressure on gold. Despite ongoing inflationary risks, market expectations of a rate cut in June have risen to 66.3% (up 3% since the PCE release). Lower interest rates could enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold.
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