CAD Will Have Less Upward Momentum in the New Year

As the G10 currency that performed the best in 2019, Canadian dollar may see a rather smooth horizontal trend this year partly because weakening domestic economy, and partly because the positive influence of easing trade tensions has been fading. CAD rose 5% against the USD in 2019, with nearly half of the increase gained in the last few weeks, benefiting as several other currencies from a reduce of risk factors at the end of 2019.

Recently released data showed Canada‘s economy is slowing down, suggesting a great likelihood of interest rate cut from the central bank. The Bank of Canada had held interest rate at 1.75% unchanged last year, amid a wave of rate slash by major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Statistics released in the recent few weeks show Canada’s economy shrank 0.1% in October, 2019, while November saw a decline of over 70,000 jobs. Canadas annualized growth based on the quarter-over-quarter rate of Q4 is estimated to be under 1%.

As risk factors will not significantly reduce in 2020, from a technical perspective, 1.3036 will be the pivot point for USD/CAD in the first half of 2020, and if the exchange rate remains above this level, USD may rise against CAD.