Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar Breakout Faces First Test

• AUD/USD breach of monthly opening-rang targeting initial resistance objectives

  澳元/美元突破每月开盘率目标初步阻力目标

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• Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

  加入Michael参加Live Weekly Strategy网络研讨会星期一中午12点30分

The Australian Dollar is up more-than 1.1% against the US Dollar into the close of the week with price stretching into near-term confluence resistance on Friday. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts next week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

澳元兑美元汇率上涨超过1.1％本周收盘，周五价格延续至近期汇合阻力位。这些是下周澳元/美元图表中重要的更新目标和失效水平。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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外汇交易新手入门？开始使用此免费入门指南

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AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

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Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted, “Key weekly support stands at 7020/42 – a region defined by the 2019 open and the 50% retracement of the yearly range.” Price registered a low at 7052 into the start of the April trade with the breach above the monthly opening-range high / slope resistance now targeting daily confluence resistance at 7184/97 – (61.8% retracement / 200-day moving average / median-line).

技术展望：在我最新的澳元/美元每周技术展望中，我们注意到，“关键的每周支持位于7020/42 - 2019年开盘和年度区间50％回撤线所定义的区域。”价格在4月交易开始时低于7052，突破每月开盘高位/斜率阻力位现在针对每日汇合阻力位于7184/97 - （61.8％回撤/ 200日移动平均线/中线）。

A breach / close above this threshold is needed to keep the long bias viable. Note that daily momentum is testing 60 and further highlights the immediate threat to the advance – look for a reaction here near-term. Monthly open support rests at 7122 with broader bullish invalidation at the highlighted trendline confluence around ~7100.

需要保持突破/收盘价高于此阈值长期偏见可行。请注意，每日动量正在测试60，并进一步凸显了对进展的直接威胁 - 寻找近期的反应。每月公开支撑位于7122，在7100附近的突出趋势线汇合处有更广泛的看涨无效。

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AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

澳元/美元120分钟价格表

Notes: A closer look a price action shows Aussie trading within the confines of a near-term ascending channel formation after breaking out of the multi-week consolidation pattern on Monday. Note that the upper parallel converges on the 7184/97 range and further highlights the near-term significance of this threshold.

注意：仔细观察价格行动显示澳元交易在一个范围内在周一突破多周盘整格局后，近期上行通道形成。注意，上部平行线收敛于7184/97区间，并进一步突出了该门槛的近期重要性。

A topside breach targets 7215/17 backed closely by the 78.6% retracement of the late-January decline at 7232. Critical resistance stands at 7270/76. Look for initial support along the monthly opening-range high at 7132 backed by 7122- both levels of interest for possible exhaustion/ long-entries IF reached. The weekly range lows rest at 7088- weakness beyond this threshold would look to challenge yearly open support at 7042.

上行突破目标7215/17受到1月底下跌至7232的78.6％回撤的支撑。关键阻力位于7270/76。寻找初步支撑位于月度开盘高点7132由7122支持 - 对于可能的疲惫/长期入场IF的兴趣水平。每周区间低点在7088-超过此阈值的弱点将看起来挑战7042年度开放支撑。

Bottom line: Aussie is trading into a near-term technical resistance confluence and while the immediate advance is vulnerable heading into the close of the week, a break of the monthly opening range does keep the broader focus higher in price while above the monthly open. From a trading standpoint, look for possible exhaustion in this zone with a pullback to offer more favorable long-entries while above the monthly open. Ultimately a breach above 7217 us needed to clear the way for a larger advance targeting 7270/76.

一句话：澳大利亚正在进行近期技术性交易e汇合虽然直接上涨在本周收盘时很脆弱，但月度开盘价的突破确实使得更广泛的焦点在价格上涨而高于月度开盘价。从交易的角度来看，在这个区域寻找可能的疲惫状态，并在每月开盘时提供更多有利的长期参与。最终，7217以上的突破需要为更大的预先定位7270/76开辟道路。

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

澳元兑美元交易员情绪

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD- the ratio stands at -1.2 (45.5% of traders are long) – weak bullishreading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示，交易者是净空头澳元/美元 - 该比率为-1.2（交易者持有的比例为45.5％） - 弱看涨

• Long positions are6.4% lower than yesterday and 5.0% lower from last week

  多头头寸比昨天减少6.4％，比上周减少5.0％

• Short positions are 13.9% lower than yesterday and 7.7% lower from last week

  空头头寸比昨天低13.9％与上周相比下降7.7％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上交易者是净空头表明澳元/美元价格可能继续上升。然而，交易商的净空头比昨天减少，与上周相比，最近的情绪变化警告称，尽管交易者仍处于净空头，但目前的澳元/美元价格趋势可能很快反转走低。

Relevant Australia / US Economic Data Releases

相关的澳大利亚/美国经济数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!.

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。在我们的免费指南中了解有关我们如何交易新闻的更多信息！

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