Instant View: January CPI accelerates, but trend easing

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices increased from the prior month in January but met expectations, while the underlying trend showed inflation is slowing, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on a modest path of interest rate hikes.

纽约（路透社）——美国 1 月份消费者价格环比上涨，但符合预期，而基本趋势显示通胀正在放缓，可能使美联储保持温和加息。

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% last month, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. Data for December was revised higher to show the CPI gaining 0.1% instead of the 0.1% fall as previously reported. In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 6.4% after advancing 6.5% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI climbing 0.5% for January and rising 6.2% year-on-year.

美国劳工部周二表示，上个月消费者价格指数 (cpi) 上涨了 0.5%。 12 月份的数据被上调，显示 cpi 上涨 0.1%，而不是之前报告的下跌 0.1%。在截至 1 月的 12 个月中，cpi 在 12 月上涨 6.5% 后上涨 6.4%。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计 1 月份 cpi 将上涨 0.5%，同比上涨 6.2%。

MARKET REACTION:

市场反应：

STOCKS: S&P 500 futures were choppy and last down 0.1%

股票：标准普尔 500 指数期货走势震荡，最新下跌 0.1%

BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.6 basis points to 3.704%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 0.3 basis points at 4.537%.

债券：10 年期国债收益率下跌 1.6 个基点至 3.704%；两年期美国国债收益率上涨 0.3 个基点至 4.537%。

FOREX: The dollar index fell 0.20%, with the euro up 0.35% to $1.0757.

外汇：美元指数下跌 0.20%，欧元上涨 0.35% 至 1.0757 美元。

COMMENTS:

评论：

TOM PORCELLI, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK

tom porcelli，加拿大皇家银行资本市场首席美国经济学家，纽约

This number was better than feared. I think going into this number there were expectations that maybe this was going to be yet another indicator that would potentially force the Fed to keep at this hiking cycle, keep going for a while longer. That did not materialize today. This is a completely consensus outcome. Even looking at some of the guts of the data, one of the things that really stands out is that shelter, and specifically owners‘ equivalent rent – it’s pretty clear that we‘re now past the worst. We’re seemingly in a bit of a basing pattern here where the next leg here is probably lower, given what we know in real time about rent prices. So, I think that comes as a big source of relief on some level and in the context of shelter has been doing a lot of the damage from an inflation perspective, particularly over recent months. So, I think in a lot of ways it‘s still very easy to make the case that it looks like inflation will continue to soften as the year progresses and I’m sure this comes as an enormous source of relief at the Fed.

这个数字比担心的要好。我认为进入这个数字时，人们期望这可能会成为另一个指标，可能会迫使美联储保持这个加息周期，持续一段时间。这在今天没有实现。这是一个完全一致的结果。即使查看一些数据，真正突出的一件事就是庇护所，特别是业主的等效租金——很明显，我们现在已经度过了最糟糕的时期。考虑到我们对租金价格的实时了解，我们在这里似乎处于一种基本模式，下一站可能会走低。因此，我认为这在某种程度上是一个很大的缓解来源，并且在避难所的背景下，从通货膨胀的角度来看已经造成了很多损害，尤其是在最近几个月。因此，我认为在很多方面仍然很容易证明随着时间的推移通货膨胀看起来将继续走软，我相信这将让美联储感到宽慰。

“I think the pieces are in place for inflation to continue to slow down. We‘re seeing a lot of disinflationary force coming in the goods sector, that’s been true now for months. That did all of the damage on the way up, particularly over the last couple of years, and its really going to ease price pressures on the way down.”

“我认为通胀继续放缓的条件已经到位。我们看到商品行业出现了大量反通胀力量，几个月来一直如此。这在上涨过程中造成了所有损害，尤其是在过去几年，而且它确实会缓解下跌过程中的价格压力。”

TOM DI GALOMA, CO-HEAD GLOBAL RATES TRADING, BTIG, NEW YORK

tom di galoma，纽约 btig 全球利率交易联席主管

The number was a lot stronger on a year-over-year basis. You got a number that changes the disinflation narrative that people have been talking about. This number obviously has put a little bit of caution in my thinking.

与去年同期相比，这个数字要强劲得多。你得到的数字改变了人们一直在谈论的通货紧缩的说法。这个数字显然让我的想法有点谨慎。

For the most, we‘re seeing a stronger set of numbers, and we’ll have to see what some of the Fed speakers have to say today.

对于大多数人来说，我们看到一组更强劲的数字，我们必须看看今天一些美联储发言人要说些什么。

“My quick take on this is that the number in my view is higher than what the market expected. Disinflation is kind of changed here. This gives some ammunition to the Fed to basically come out with more hawkish rhetoric. The Feds got 25 to do in March, maybe another 25 in May. The chances of 25 in June is perhaps 40%.”

“我对此的快速看法是，我认为这个数字高于市场预期。通货紧缩在这里有所改变。这为美联储提供了一些弹药，基本上可以发表更多鹰派言论。美联储在 3 月份有 25 个任务要做，5 月份可能还有 25 个任务要做。 6 月达到 25 次的可能性可能是 40%。”

ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD

robert pavlik，dakota wealth 高级投资组合经理，fairfield

The numbers are continuing to show a modest, sequential decline, which is really what the trend has been (and) is somewhat positive.

这些数字继续显示出适度的连续下降，这确实是趋势（并且）在某种程度上是积极的。

It‘s not going to necessarily influence the Federal Reserve one way or another. I think what you’re going to continue to see and hear is the market to be unsure about what the Fed does next. The data doesnt really change the expectations of a 25 basis point hike at the next meeting, followed by either a pause or another 25 bps rate hike, possibly at the meeting after that.

它不一定会以某种方式影响美联储。我认为你将继续看到和听到的是市场不确定美联储接下来会做什么。该数据并没有真正改变对下次会议加息 25 个基点的预期，随后可能会在之后的会议上暂停或再次加息 25 个基点。

“I do expect a pause to be coming somewhat soon. I don‘t think it indicates any kind of pivot or change in the direction of the Federal Reserve at least, not unless the economy starts to weaken substantially and I don’t see that happening.”

“我确实希望暂停会很快到来。我认为这至少不表示美联储方向有任何转变或改变，除非经济开始大幅走弱，而我认为这种情况不会发生。”

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK

peter cardillo，斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家，纽约

The topline and core were higher than consensus but year-over-year both core and topline are still headed lower – just less than expected. It still indicates that overall inflation is moving down.

收入和核心收入高于市场预期，但核心收入和收入同比仍呈下降趋势——仅低于预期。它仍然表明整体通胀正在下降。

I don‘t think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they’re taking a hard look at the data. Does it mean we are headed for at least two more rate hikes？ Absolutely. My guess is the year-over-year decline in topline and core (CPI) suggests another 25 basis point hike in March and another one in May.

我不认为（这份报告）对美联储有帮助，我怀疑他们正在认真研究数据。这是否意味着我们将至少再加息两次？绝对是。我的猜测是收入和核心 (cpi) 的同比下降表明 3 月和 5 月再次加息 25 个基点。

It‘s as expected in terms of the market’s positive reaction.

就市场的积极反应而言，这是意料之中的。

“(Negative real earnings) will begin to show up in consumer behavior, this week‘s retail numbers are probably going to show a decline of 0.6%. And with inflation still elevated, the consumer is bound to change their habits. It’s just a matter of time.”

“（负实际收入）将开始体现在消费者行为中，本周的零售数据可能会下降 0.6%。随着通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，消费者势必会改变他们的习惯。这只是时间问题。”

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY, NEW YORK

art hogan，首席市场策略师，b. riley，纽约

I would argue that this very anticipated inflation report came in very much in line with expectations. So what we care about is the month over month change and this is also what were looking for, movement in the right direction of the year over year number.

我认为这份备受期待的通胀报告非常符合预期。所以我们关心的是逐月变化，这也是我们正在寻找的，逐年数字朝着正确方向移动。

While we‘d love to see this come down faster, it’s very much in line with expectations.

虽然我们希望看到这一点下降得更快，但它非常符合预期。

Consensus is now in line with the Fed. So markets now believe, much like the Fed does, that the terminal rate will be reached in the month of May and itll be a range of 5%-5.25%.

现在的共识与美联储一致。因此，市场现在相信，就像美联储所做的那样，最终利率将在 5 月份达到，并且将在 5%-5.25% 的范围内。

“So I dont think any of this necessarily in and of itself changes expectations. I think the aggregate of the stronger jobs number, a CPI very much in line with the consensus and a retail sales report for January, that looks to be.”

“所以我认为这一切本身并不一定会改变预期。我认为强劲的就业数据、非常符合市场共识的 cpi 和 1 月份的零售销售报告的总和，看起来是这样。”

JOE SALUZZI, CO-MANAGER OF TRADING, THEMIS TRADING, NEW JERSEY

joe saluzzi，交易联席经理，themis trading，新泽西州

People were anticipating a worse than expected number. It seems like everybody was getting set up this morning that this would be a so-called hot a number and then the numbers itself were pretty much in line.

人们预计的数字会比预期的要糟糕。似乎今天早上每个人都准备好了，这将是一个所谓的热门数字，然后这些数字本身几乎是一致的。

“The dollar and the bonds are a little bit more accurate, in my opinion, as stocks can have a kneejerk reaction. The market is anticipating based on this data one more 25 bps hike and then we‘ll see from there and that’s bullish scenario at this point.”

“在我看来，美元和债券更准确一些，因为股票可能会做出下意识的反应。基于这些数据，市场预计还会加息 25 个基点，然后我们将从那里看到，目前是看涨的情景。”

HUGH JOHNSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HUGH JOHNSON ECONOMICS, ALBANY, NEW YORK.

hugh johnson，首席经济学家，hugh johnson economics，奥尔巴尼，纽约。

You have a little bit of a negative reaction because these numbers are not going to take the pressure off the Federal Reserve.

你有一点负面反应，因为这些数字不会减轻美联储的压力。

The real issue is what is the Federal Reserve going to do, it‘s pretty widely expected that they’re going to raise rates both at their March meeting as well as their May meeting.

真正的问题是美联储将要做什么，人们普遍预计他们将在 3 月和 5 月的会议上加息。

I think the more important question though is what will the Federal Reserve do with regard to the terminal rate when they meet in March, and right now the expectation is starting to grow that theyre going to increase the terminal rate from 5 to 5 1/2.

我认为更重要的问题是美联储在 3 月份开会时将如何处理终端利率，现在人们开始越来越期望他们将终端利率从 5 提高到 5 1/2 .

So, if you‘re looking for some indication that the Federal Reserve is going to pause, take its foot off the brake, you’re not going to see it in these numbers.

所以，如果你正在寻找美联储将暂停、松开刹车的迹象，你将不会在这些数字中看到它。

“Theres not much there for the Federal Reserve to give them some sort of a justification for taking their foot off the brake and reducing interest rates.”

“美联储没有太多理由让他们松开刹车并降低利率。”

ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK

纽约 50 park investments 首席执行官亚当·萨汉 (adam sarhan)

The reaction has been positive. If you look at the dollar, it is down, the euro up, and thats basically means the narrative remains unchanged that the Fed will eventually slow down; It is: raising rates, stop raising rates and then possibly cut rates down the road in the future and avoid a hard landing, completing their goal of a soft landing.

反应是积极的。如果你看一下美元，它在下跌，欧元在上涨，这基本上意味着美联储最终将放缓的说法没有改变；就是：加息，停止加息，然后可能在未来的道路上降息，避免硬着陆，完成他们软着陆的目标。

“I wouldnt be surprised if the market fell off a little bit just because it had a big run over the last 5-6 weeks. But in the short term, the CPI so far, the market is shrugging it off.”

“如果市场仅仅因为过去 5-6 周的大幅上涨而下跌一点，我不会感到惊讶。但就短期而言，到目前为止，市场对 cpi 不以为意。”