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Abstract:Following lower November inflation figures, a rise in the UK unemployment rate, and an increase in claimant counts, the data suggests that the Bank of England should give a dovish 50 basis point rate hike.
GBP/USD Price Movement
The pound was down 0.07% at $1.24163 at the time of writing. The GBP/USD had a mixed start to the day, rising to an early high of $1.24277 before sliding to a low of $1.24074.
Technical Indicators
To reach the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.2467, the Pound must avoid the $1.2405 pivot. A break of the Wednesday high of $1.24465 would indicate a positive session. To support a breakout session, the Bank of England would need to issue an aggressive 50-basis-point rise.
If the GBP/USD continues to rise, it will most likely hit the Second Major Resistance Level around $1.2509. R3 is the Third Major Resistance Level (R3).
A fall through the pivot activates the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2363. However, barring a BoE-induced sell-off, the GBP/USD should stay above $1.2350 and avoid the Second Major Support Level (S2) around $1.2300.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) is now set at $1.2195.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly chart both indicate a bullish indication. The GBP/USD is now trading above the 50-day EMA at $1.22636. The 50-day EMA has moved away from the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA has moved away from the 200-day EMA, indicating a bullish trend.
A sustained gain over S1 ($1.2363) would support a move through R1 ($1.2467) to R2 ($1.2509). A GBP/USD decline through S1 ($1.2363), on the other hand, would bring S2 ($1.2300) and the 50-day EMA ($1.22636) into view. The 200-day EMA is now at $1.19569.
Meanwhile
In the WikiFX bull and bear sentiment. It clearly shows that the chance percentage of GBP/USD price action will go up. It simply means trading in a long position may result in getting a high profit.
You may check out the chart here: https://vps.wikifx.com/en/data/holdposition.html
The United States Session
The dollar has a busy day ahead of it. The weekly unemployment claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI, and retail sales numbers will most likely have the largest impact.
Following the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, an unexpected increase in unemployment claims, a drop in retail sales, and a greater downturn in industrial sector activity would put the dollar under pressure.
With the FOMC blackout period finished, FOMC member talk will need to be monitored as well.
Stand tuned for more Forex Analysis news.
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Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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