Daily Forex Analysis - 18th August 2021

USD Overview (18 August 2021)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against all major currencies.

The retail sales m/m data released yesterday indicated a decline in consumer spending amid the rising fear over the Delta variant of the COVID virus.

- Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -0.4%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 1.6% revised from 1.3%)

- Retail Sales m/m (Actual: -1.1%, Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

The housing data will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

- Building Permits (Forecast: 1.61M, Previous: 1.59M revised from 1.60M)

- Housing Starts (Forecast: 1.60M, Previous: 1.64M)

The Federal Reserve will be releasing the minutes for the recent monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8).

NZD/USD Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD weakened and broke the support zone of 0.69500 after it was announced that New Zealand will return into a nationwide lockdown after the reporting of one new local COVID case in six months.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at 1000 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be hiking interest rate by 0.25% amid the strong economic recovery in New Zealand. The hike in rates will also help ease the recent spike in property prices. However, due to the new COVID case that was discovered in New Zealand yesterday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promptly announced a nationwide lockdown for 3 days with immediate effect. Nonetheless, the RBNZ is likely going to continue with the rate hike but will address the public on their views on this unfortunate turn of events.

A press conference will be held at 1100 (GMT+8). During this time, volatility in NZD is expected.

Currently, NZD/USD is moving towards the resistance zone of 0.69500 and the next support zone is at 0.67900.

If the RBNZ proceeds with a rate hike but NZD/USD fails to break the resistance zone of 0.69500, look for short-term selling opportunities.

AUD/USD Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, AUD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, AUD/USD broke the support zone of 0.73300.

The Australian employment data will be released tomorrow at 0930 (GMT+8).

- Employment Change (Forecast: -46.0K, Previous: 29.1K)

- Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 4.9%)

AUD/USDs next support zone is at 0.72200 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73300.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD.

USD/JPY Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across.

USD/JPYs next support zone is at 108.500 and the next resistance zone is at 110.800.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD broke the support zone of 1.17600.

The eurozone flash employment change q/q data released yesterday indicated a rebound in employment during the second quarter. The GDP q/q data released indicated continued growth in the economy at the same pace during the second quarter.

- Flash Employment Change q/q (Actual: 0.5%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

- Flash GDP q/q (Actual: 2.0%, Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 2.0%)

EUR/USDs next support zone is at 1.16300 and the next resistance zone is at 1.17600.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/USD.

GBP/USD Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD broke the support zone of 1.38000.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the decline of the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits while average earnings have increased and unemployment rate declined slightly.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 8.8%, Forecast: 8.6%, Previous: 7.4% revised from 7.35)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -7.8K, Forecast: TBA, Previous: -136.1K revised from -114.8K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.7%, Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.8%)

The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.5%) will be released later at 1400 (GMT+8).

GBP/USDs next support zone is at 1.36000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.38000.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD.

USD/CAD Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD broke the resistance zone of 1.26100.

The Canadian Housing Starts data (Actual: 272K, Forecast: 275K, Previous: 281K revised from 282K) released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the number of residential buildings that began construction in July.

The Canadian CPI m/m data (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%) will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

Currently, USD/CAD is testing the support zone of 1.26100 and the next resistance zone is at 1.28500.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD if it bounces off the support zone of 1.26100.

GBP/JPY Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY broke the support zone of 151.000.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the decline of the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits while average earnings have increased and unemployment rate declined slightly.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 8.8%, Forecast: 8.6%, Previous: 7.4% revised from 7.35)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -7.8K, Forecast: TBA, Previous: -136.1K revised from -114.8K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.7%, Forecast: 4.8%, Previous: 4.8%)

The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.5%) will be released later at 1400 (GMT+8).

GBP/JPYs next support zone is at 148.900 and the next resistance zone is at 151.000.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY.

EUR/JPY Outlook (18 August 2021)

Overall, EUR/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, EUR/JPY broke the support zone of 128.500.

The eurozone flash employment change q/q data released yesterday indicated a rebound in employment during the second quarter. The GDP q/q data released indicated continued growth in the economy at the same pace during the second quarter.

- Flash Employment Change q/q (Actual: 0.5%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

- Flash GDP q/q (Actual: 2.0%, Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 2.0%)

EUR/JPYs next support zone is at 127.150 and the next resistance zone is at 128.500.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY.