EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – 19th to 23rd July 2021

Technically, the EUR/USD pair is bearish and could cut through the 1.1700 verge.

The US dollar gulped higher in the second week of July, with EUR/USD subsiding at about 1.1800 after declining to 1.1771.

Inflation ascends in the US

Inflation was studied for June, attaining an enormous 5.4% YoY. The Producer Price Index in the same period reaches 7.3%, while the core Consumer Price Index was reviewed to 4.5%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended 9th July reduced to 360K, while Industrial Production ascended moderately to 0.4% MoM in June.

In the meantime, inflation in Germany was established at 2.1% YoY in June, while the EU figures issued at 1.9% YoY.

The foremost happening in the coming week will be the ECB monetary policy decision. Officials are extensively expected to uphold the present policy unaffected following the newest update on the subject. Stockholders will be on the lookout for specifics on the novel forward guidance and how easygoing officials would be with inflation. The EU will issue July Consumer Confidence, predicted at -2.5 from -3.3 before.

EUR/USD technical overview

The EUR/USD pairs weakening has increased following its ascendance to 1.1974 on July 26. From a weekly perspective, the duo has maintained a third successive week of lower lows and lower highs. The pair has sustained development underneath the 61.8% retracement line of its March/May range at 1.1920, moving towards the bottom of the range at 1.1703.

Still, in the weekly chart, the RSI indicator has stretched its slide within negative areas, preserving its bearish forte. The 20 SMA turns bearish above the present level, while the longer MAs persist strongly beneath it. In summary, the pair is slanted to the bears side.

On the daily chart, a developing descendant channel can be observed by the pair while indicating symbols of further decline. The 20 SMA goes south overhead the existing level and far beneath the longer MAs, while the 100 SMA crossed beneath the 200 SMA for the first time in 2021.

The instantaneous support region is at 1.1771, a three-month low reached this week. Below is the next likely bearish goal at the 1.1700 figure, shadowed by the 1.1620 price region. An instantaneous resistance level is positioned around the 1.1850 price district, shadowed by the 1.1920 zone.

EUR/USD sentiment overview

Traders are expecting the dollar to outspread advances next week. From research, experts forecast the pair declining. The downward pressure on EUR/USD reduces in the monthly and weekly views, however, bulls overtake bears, although, on average, the pair are seen holding below 1.2000.

The Overview chart the dominance of sellers is stronger. The three moving averages headed south, while in the time frames understudy, most goals accumulate beneath 1.2000. Lower lows are probable, with bears spreading the lower end of the range of likely marks.