AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .7869 Sets the Tone on Monday

The Australian Dollar surged to its highest level in three-years against the U.S. Dollar early Monday as progress in curbing coronavirus infections boosted sentiment for riskier assets. The Aussie is being supported by demand for currencies linked to the global commodities trade due to an improving economic outlook.

At 03:42 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7876, up 0.0007 or +0.09%. This is down from an intraday high of .7908.

In other news, vaccine rollouts will ease risks to Australia‘s economy over the year, ratings agency Fitch said on Monday when it maintained the country’s top AAA credit rating, albeit with a negative outlook.

Australia on Monday began its mass COVID-19 vaccine program as the country looked to set to report no local cases for the third straight day, which gave the Aussie a boost.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at .7908 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7724.

The minor range is .7724 to .7908. If the intraday selling pressure continues then its 50% level at .7816 will become the next downside target.

The direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to Fridays close at .7869.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7869 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a test of the intraday high at .7908, followed by the March 14, 2018 main top at .7916. This level is resistance and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7869 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum, we could see a test of the pivot at .7816.

A close under .7869 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed then look for the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.