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Why economic recovery will be slow?
Abstract：Risk aversion is currently a dominant depressant to economic recovery, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
A few days ago, the National Statistical Office released its estimate of GDP decline in Q1 at 24 per cent.
Furthermore, since such quarterly estimates mostly fail to capture developments in the informal/unorganised, non-agricultural sector, this estimate of decline is likely to be revised upwards eventually, given what is known about the devastation to this sector caused by the lockdown.
So, realistically, the Q1 decline in GDP is likely to have been even greater, in the order of 30 per cent.
Even 24 per cent is a massive loss of output and incomes and greater than any suffered by other G-20 countries.
As the government's chief economic adviser has pointed out, this was probably because India's lockdown in the first two months was the strictest.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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