EUR/USD - NFP Decisive Today!|KOL Analysis•Olimpiu Tuns

EUR/USD is trading in the red today at 1.1847 level, way below 1.1917 yesterdays high, it remains to see how it will react after the US NFP report will be released later today. The bullish bias remains intact as long as the rate is located above the 1.18 level, further growth is favored as the USDX is still under pressure.

The pair has decreased a little as the US Dollar Index has managed to recover after reaching and retesting the 92.55 former low. The greenback needs strong support today from the US economy to be able to appreciate further versus its rivals.

The US Non-Farm Employment Change is expected around 1530K in July, less versus 4800K in June, the Unemployment Rate could drop from 11.1% to 10.5%, while the Average Hourly Earnings economic indicator may drop by 0.5%.

The Euro could take the lead again ahead of the US data as the German Trade Balance and the Industrial Production have come in better than expected.

● USDX Double Bottom？

USDX has come back from the 93.81 to retest the sliding line (SL1) and the 92.55 low and now is struggling to rebound. It is premature to talk about a potential significant rebound because some poor US figures today could ruin this scenario and could send the index towards fresh new lows.

The potential double bottom pattern could be validated only by a valid breakout above the 93.81 level and above the 50% Fibonacci line. You should be careful because another lower low, a drop below 92.55 level will signal a further drop to the second sliding line (SL2). EUR/USD will reach fresh new highs if the USDX will drop deeper.

On the other hand, EUR/USD could develop a temporary corrective phase if the index will have enough bullish energy to come back higher.

● EUR/USD Temporary Drop？

EUR/USD has failed to close above the 1.1910 former high and now is trading in the red. The outlook is bullish as the rate is located above the 1.18 critical support level and above the 250% Fibonacci line.

The second warning line (WL2) and the 1.20 psychological level are seen as potential upside targets as long as the rate stays above the mentioned near-term support levels. Still, I believe that only a drop below the 1.1700 level will really activate a larger drop.

A consolidation above the 1.1800 or another higher high will confirm further growth, EUR/USD could jump way above the second warning line (WL2). You could buy another higher high, a jump, and close above the 1.1910 - 1.1917 area, and you can sell a drop below the 1.1700 psychological level if the pair will fail to stay above the 1.18 and above the 250% Fibonacci line.

EUR/USD could edge higher if the US data will disappoint later today, so todays drop could be only a temporary one.

{About the Author}

Olimpiu Tuns is a seasoned market analyst / trader / trainer on the financial markets with expertise in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, futures, options, index, CFD for more than 8 years. He is also a famous blogger in both technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, trade setups, etc.

He has worked as a Market Analyst / Consultant for three major Brokerage companies, Admiral Markets, MultiBank Exchange Group and InstaForex (live webinars, market analysis, educational materials, video analysis, video tutorials, ghostwriting, content creator), as a Social Media Manager and as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Contributor for very important news portals/blogs (investing.com, benzinga.com, forexalchemy.com actionforex.com, countingpips.com), websites, educational platforms (Forex.Academy, Forex.Today), independent clients, etc.

Olimpiu Tuns currently works as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Signal Provider / Trader / Trainer.

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