Australias Effective Unemployment Rate 13.3%, Frydenberg Says

Australias effective unemployment rate that also includes people who have opted against searching for work as the economy contracts is almost double the official jobless level, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said.

Australias economy tumbled into recession in the first half of the year -- ending an almost three-decade expansion -- and Treasury, the department that provides economic analysis and develops policy for Frydenberg, reckons official unemployment will climb to 8% this quarter.

“We have seen a big reduction in hours worked in the months since the Covid pandemic first hit in Australia. Globally, they are seeing the same,” the treasurer said. “That just reflects the enormous economic challenge that we face and the impact its having on the unemployment rate.”

The official unemployment rate has been held down by people giving up looking for employment -- captured with sharp fall in the participation rate -- and by the governments JobKeeper program that pays a wage subsidy to keep workers tied to employers.

The jobless rate probably edged up to 7.2% in June as those previously discouraged from job searching return, offsetting the 100,000 positions added in the month, economists predicted ahead of Thursdays employment data. The expected surge in hiring reflects the removal of restrictions and reopening of the economy during the month.

The southern state of Victoria, the second largest contributor to gross domestic product, has since had to reimpose lockdown orders as a second wave of Covid-19 sweeps the state capital, Melbourne.

Frydenberg is due to deliver a fiscal and economic statement on July 23 that will outline the governments plans for ongoing stimulus as programs like JobKeeper and JobSeeker, a temporarily higher welfare payment for the unemployed, are due to expire in September.

There will be a “second phase of income support. It will be governed by the same principles that have defined our economic measures to date, namely that our support will be targeted, it will be temporary, it will be designed based on existing systems and it will also be demand driven,” Frydenberg said.

“So it is fair to say in Victoria, with the lockdown, which is going to be harsh on businesses and households, that our announcements on the 23rd will take into account the Victorian circumstances,” he said.

— With assistance by Matthew Burgess