Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Approaching Range Extremes

• USD/CAD approaching upper-bounds of multi-week range– focus on weekly close around 1.3355/70

  USD / CAD接近多周的上界范围 - 集中在周收盘围绕1.3355 / 70

The Canadian Dollar down more than 0.75% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD testing the upper-bounds of a multi-month range in price heading into major US event risk tomorrow. Its the moment of truth for Loonie. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart into the open of Q4.

加元下跌以来，本周美元/加元测试在价格走向多月范围的上界为美国主要的事件风险明天开始对美元超过0.75％。其真理的时刻加元。这些是更新目标和无效水平每个重要USD / CAD每周图表到打开Q4的。

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the, “broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias.” Two week later, and Loonie has continued to hold this range with USD/CAD now approaching the upper bounds of this critical zone. Key resistance stands at 1.3355/70 – a region defined by the 2019 high-week close and the 61.% retracement of the May decline. Note that the 75% parallel also converges on this region this week and further highlights its technical significance.

注：我在去年加拿大元每周价格展望我们注意到，“更广泛的重点仍然在1.3155- 1.3355区域用于指导我们近一个破发长期方向偏向。”两个星期后，加元和继续持有该范围内的美元/加元目前已经逼近这个临界区的上限。关键阻力位于1.3355 / 70 - 由2019年的高上周收盘和月下降61％回撤位所限定的区域。需要注意的是平行的75％也本周收敛于该区域，并进一步突出了其技术意义。

Price is already poised to mark an outside-weekly reversal this week with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow morning. A topside breach / close above would expose the highlighted confluence zone around the March highs near 1.3467 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Interim support rests at the median-line with a close below 1.3155 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting the yearly low-week close at 1.3059.

价格已经准备标记本周自来水明天上午和外周逆转与美国非农就业数据。顶侧违反/关闭上述将暴露在周围三月高点突出的汇合区附近1.3467 - 寻找一个更大的反应那里，如果达到了。中期支撑在于在低于1.3155紧密所需的中间线来标记恢复的更广泛的下降在夺回接近1.3059目标年度低的一周。

Bottom line: USD/CAD is approaching the upper-bounds of a multi-month range in price and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable here- we‘re looking for a reaction. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1.3355/70 – watch the weekly close in relation to this threshold with a close above needed to keep the long-bias viable. Failure here could see a more pronounced correction lower. I’ll publish an updated Canadian Dollar Trade Outlook once we get further clarity on in near-term price action.

底线：USD / CAD正在接近的多个月范围的上界在价格并留下我们正在寻找一个反应立即提前脆弱这里 - 。从交易的角度来看，希望降低长时间曝光/上伸展向1.3355 / 70提高保护性止损 - 看周收盘价相对于该阈值以上密切保持长期的偏见可行的需要。失败在这里可以看到一个更明显的修正下。一旦我们在近期的价格走势得到进一步澄清，我会发布一个更新加拿大元贸易展望

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A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at +-2.88 (25.8% of traders are long) –bullishreading

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• Traders have remained net-short since September 12th; price has moved 1.1% higher since then

  自9月12日交易商一直保持为净空;从那时起

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• Long positions are18.5% lower than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week

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• Short positions are36.9% higher than yesterday and 14.5% higher from last week

  空头are36.9比昨天越来越高14.5％从上周％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取了逆势以人群的情绪，而事实上贸易商净做空暗示美元/加元的价格可能会继续上涨。贸易商比昨天＆上周进一步净短，和当前的定位和最近的变化的组合为我们提供了一个更强的USD / CAD-看涨反向交易从情绪的角度来看偏压。