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Abstract:Crude oil is down 5% on the week and by over 12% in the last two weeks as global growth fears and politics weigh on oil.
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Crude Oil Price Fundamental Forecast: Neutral
Crude oil continues to weaken in the face of ongoing global economic growth worries, a build in inventories, Saudi Arabias plans to impose a partial cease-fire in Yemen and rumors just crossing the wires that the US is said to be willing to remove all sanctions on Iran in exchange for talks, although so far there has been no official confirmation or denial of these rumors. While taken together these reasons make a strong case for a bearish outlook for next week, the recent price slump nudges my outlook to neutral for the week ahead.
Oil inventories continue to build, with DOE US crude oil inventories building by 2412k barrels, against expectations of 276k drawdown and a prior build of 1058k.
In a surprise move early Friday, Saudi Arabia is said to have offered Yemen a partial cease-fire to help defuse political tensions in the region, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources. In addition, Saudi Arabia is said to have, or be nearing to, restored oil production in the region after drone attacks nearly two weeks ago shut down half its oil production in the area.
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Crude oil has given back most its recent sharp gains, made on the back of the Saudi drone attacks and is nearing the recent uptrend off the August 7 $50.50/bbl low. Oil will need to respect this supportive trend line if it is to push higher in the days to come.
Crude Oil Price Daily Chart (January – September 27, 2019)
The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 72.0% net-long US crude oil, a bearish contrarian bias.
Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.
What is your view on Crude Oil – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.