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Abstract:Crude oil prices have run into four-month chart resistance as markets await cues from Julys FOMC and ECB meeting minutes as well as the Jackson Hole symposium.
CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices edge up in risk-on trade, but key resistance held
API inventory flow data rounds out barebones economic calendar
Gold prices retreat as markets eye FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole
Friday‘s risk-on sentiment tilt carried through Monday’s session, with crude oil prices rising alongside stocks. A parallel rise in bond yields undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets and weighed on gold. Impressively, the US Dollar recovered some lost ground despite its recently anti-risk profile.
All the same, the benchmark commodities made little progress from near-term ranges, as expected. That seems to reflect traders withholding conviction ahead of critical event risk: minutes from Julys FOMC and ECB meetings as well as the Fed-hosted economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The weekly API inventory flow report rounds out the barebones data docket. It will be sized up against expectations of a 1.22-million-barrel drawdown in US stockpiles expected to be reported in official EIA statistics due Wednesday. Absent dramatic deviation, a strong response from prices seems unlikely.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices edged lower toward swing low support at 1480.00. A daily close below that would bolster topping cues hinted in negative RSI divergence, exposing a more substantive barrier in the 1437.70-52.95 zone next. Swing high resistance is at 1535.03, with a weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00 lining up thereafter.
Gold price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices remain pinned below resistance capping gains since late April, now at 58.30. A daily close above that targets the 60.04-84 zone. Alternatively, a move below the congestion area running down through 53.95 sets the stage to challenge support near the $50/bbl figure once again.
Disclaimer:
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The USD/JPY pair rises to 154.35 during the Asian session as the Yen strengthens against the Dollar for the fourth consecutive session, nearing a 12-week high. This is due to traders unwinding carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike and bond purchase tapering. Recent strong US PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy. Investors await US GDP and PCE inflation data, indicating potential volatility ahead of key central bank events.
The USD/JPY is expected to rise. The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates between 0 and 0.1% and continue its bond purchase plan but may reduce purchases and raise rates in July based on economic data. Technically, the pair is trending upward with resistance at $158.25 and $158.44, and support at $157.00, $156.16, and $155.93.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.