Mexico keeps budget target despite weak economy

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MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's finance ministry is holding onto an ambitious primary budget surplus target despite mounting evidence that the performance of Latin America's second-largest economy is falling short of government expectations.

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Alejandro Gaytan, head of the finance ministry's economic planning unit, said in an interview that a 1% primary budget surplus - a figure which strips out payments on existing debts -was still achievable this year.

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“We think the development of public finances in the first half of this year is compatible with maintaining this measure,” Gaytan told Reuters. “In the second half of the year, we expect increased economic activity for various reasons.”

“我们认为今年上半年公共财政的发展与维持这一措施是一致的，”Gaytan告诉路透社。 “在今年下半年，我们预计经济活动将因各种原因而增加。”

Mexican gross domestic product increased 0.1% between April and June from the prior quarter, narrowly averting a recession that would have dealt a major blow to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's promise to boost the $1.2 trillion economy.

墨西哥国内生产总值在4月至6月间比上一季度增长0.1％，勉强避免经济衰退将对总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔（Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador）承诺提振1.2万亿美元的经济产生重大打击。

Lopez Obrador is having to make tough choices as Mexican state oil company Pemex, one of the largest contributors to the country's budget, is at risk of losing its investment grade rating over its large debt burden.

洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔（Lopez Obrador）不得不作为墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex做出艰难抉择作为该国预算的最大贡献者之一，有可能因其庞大的债务负担而失去其投资等级评级。

Such a downgrade to “junk” status could cripple Lopez Obrador's energy agenda, along with his plans to use new oil revenue to help finance social welfare programs. It could also imperil Mexico's sovereign creditworthiness.

这种降级为“垃圾”状态可能会削弱洛佩兹Obrador的能源议程，以及他计划利用新的石油收入来帮助资助社会福利计划。这也可能危及墨西哥的主权信誉。

Ratings agencies have not changed their negative outlook on Pemex after tax cuts for the company were announced, arguing it was too little and too late. Gaytan declined to say whether the government planned other measures to help the ailing company.

评级机构在公布减税措施后没有改变对Pemex的负面展望，认为这太少而且太晚了。 Gaytan拒绝透露政府是否计划采取其他措施来帮助陷入困境的公司。

While Mexico may have avoided a recession, some critics of Lopez Obrador's policies argue that the economy has been underperforming for months and that his growth targets are unrealistic.

尽管墨西哥可能避免经济衰退，但一些批评Lopez Obrador政策的人认为经济表现不佳几个月来，他的增长目标是不切实际的。

The president is forecasting growth of 2% in 2019.

总统预测2019年将增长2％。

Even so, Gaytan said that the $25 billion spending package announced by Finance Minister Arturo Herrera this week, as well as the ratification of the new United States-Mexico-Canada free trade deal, would help boost the Mexican economy.

即便如此， Gaytan说，250亿美元的支出计划宣布本周财政部长阿图罗·埃雷拉（Arturo Herrera）以及新的美国 - 墨西哥 - 加拿大贸易协议的批准将有助于推动墨西哥经济发展。

For that package, Herrera said the government would tap an infrastructure fund and bring some planned spending forward while also providing additional credit lines, all without impacting the budget.

对于这个方案，埃雷拉表示，政府将利用基础设施基金并提前计划支出，同时提供额外的信贷额度，所有这些都不会影响预算。

“It will give more certainty and dispel doubts so that certain investments can be made,” Gaytan said. “We're committed to finding ways to boost the economy ... while maintaining fiscal targets.”

“这将提供更多的确定性并消除疑虑因此，可以进行某些投资，”Gaytan说。 “我们致力于寻找促进经济发展的方法......同时保持财政目标。”