GBP Slumps as CBI Warns Neither UK nor EU are Ready for No-Deal

GBP Talking Points:

英镑谈话要点：

• CBI warns neither UK nor EU are ready for the disruption that a no-deal would cause

  英国工业联合会警告英国和欧盟都没有做好应对中断的准备否则将导致无交易

• GBP faces further losses as Boris Johnson appoints hard-line Brexiteers as cabinet members to ensure Brexit is delivered by October 31

  由于鲍里斯·约翰逊任命强硬派Brexiteers为内阁成员以确保英国脱欧于10月31日交付，因此英镑面临进一步下跌/ p>

• BoE expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday as Brexit uncertainty continues

  由于英国脱欧的不确定性继续存在，英国央行预计周四维持利率在0.75％不变

Increasing talks of a no-deal Brexit are not boding well for the pound as GBPUSD fell to 28-month lows and EURGBP surpassed the psychological 0.90 line. Since Johnson was appointed as PM last Tuesday the pound has fallen 1.5% against both the dollar and the euro, as he formed his cabinet with hard-line Brexiteer members, putting everyone on notice that he is serious about his “do or die” stance on Brexit.

由于英镑兑美元汇率跌至28个月低位且欧元兑英镑跌破0.90心理线，英镑脱欧谈判不会对英镑构成好转。由于约翰逊上周二被任命为PM，英镑兑美元和欧元下跌了1.5％，因为他与强硬的Brexiteer成员组成了内阁，让所有人都注意到他认真对待他的“做或死”的立场关于英国脱欧。

GBP Q3 Trading Forecast

GBP Q3交易预测

PRICE CHART: GBPUSD HEADING FOR MARCH 2017 LOWS (WEEKLY TIME-FRAME)

价格表：英镑兑美元汇率为2017年3月低点（每周时间框架）

In recent news, Business Industry experts CBI have warned the government that neither the UK nor the EU are prepared to face the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, where almost every sector of the EU and UK would face disruption. The report suggests that despite UK businesses having spent billions of pounds already on contingency plans in case of a hard Brexit, the uncertainty and lack of clarity about dates and costs has left most of them feeling like there are not enough measures in place to counteract the disruption.

在最近的新闻中，商业行业专家CBI警告政府，英国和欧盟都不准备面对无交易脱欧的后果。几乎欧盟和英国的每个部门都将面临破坏。该报告表明，尽管英国企业已经花费了数十亿英镑用于应对英国脱欧的应急计划，但日期和成本的不确定性和缺乏明确性使得大多数人感觉没有足够的措施来抵消中断。

GBP Free Trading Guide

英镑免费交易指南

But instead of pressuring the PM to work together with the EU to achieve amendments to the current deal, Boris Johnson could use this information as leverage to continue his “deal or no-deal stance” if he believes that the EU will give in to pressure because they are also considered to be unprepared for a hard Brexit. But given the repeated warnings by EU commissioners that there is no possible amendment that can be made to the current withdrawal deal, it is unlikely that a new deal will be reached before the October 31 deadline.

但不是强迫PM与欧盟合作以实现铜的修正租房交易，鲍里斯约翰逊可以利用这些信息作为杠杆来继续他的“交易或无交易立场”，如果他认为欧盟会屈服于压力，因为他们也被认为对一场硬退欧做好了准备。但鉴于欧盟委员会一再警告说，目前的撤销协议没有可能的修改，在10月31日截止日期之前不太可能达成新协议。

Jean-Claude Juncker told Boris Johnson last week that the EU would analyse any proposals put forth by the UK as long as they were compatible with the terms set out in the agreement initially negotiated with Theresa May. The main point of divergence between both sides of the agreement is the Irish backstop, which would leave the UK abiding by EU rules unless another arrangement is found. Boris Johnson has said that the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit would be to abolish the backstop from the agreement, which the EU has rejected.

Jean-Claude Juncker上周告诉鲍里斯约翰逊，欧盟将分析英国提出的任何提案，只要它们符合最初与Theresa May谈判的协议中规定的条款。协议双方的主要分歧点是爱尔兰支持，除非发现另一项安排，否则将使英国遵守欧盟规则。鲍里斯·约翰逊曾表示，避免无交易脱欧的唯一方法是废除欧盟拒绝的协议的支持。

The Bank of England will release its inflation report on Thursday ahead of its interest rate decision with expectations that rates will remain unchanged at 0.75% as MPC officials stick to their wait and see what happens with Brexit before adjusting its monetary policy rhetoric, given that both inflation and the jobs market are behaving well.

英格兰银行将释放周四公布其利率决定之前的通胀报告，预期利率将保持在0.75％不变，因为货币政策委员会官员坚持等待，看看英国脱欧在调整货币政策言论之前会发生什么，因为通胀和就业市场都是表现良好。

UK Trade Would be Left Under WTO Rules

英国贸易将被WTO规则搁置

If the UK crashed out of the EU on October 31 it would rely on WTO rules to govern its international trade, whereby the agricultural sector would be the one worse of as its products could face tariffs of up to 35%. Despite the government pledging to keep 87% of imports under a zero-tariff regime to counteract the immediate effects of a no-deal Brexit, some sectors of UK manufacturing would face becoming extinct.

如果英国于10月31日从欧盟退出，它将会依靠WTO规则来管理其国际贸易，农业部门将更糟糕，因为其产品可能面临高达35％的关税。尽管政府承诺在零关税制度下保留87％的进口产品以抵消无贸易脱欧的直接影响，但英国制造业的某些部门将面临灭绝。