USDZAR: South Africa Credit Rating Cut by Fitch, Rand Drops

USDZAR CLIMBS AS FITCH CUTS SOUTH AFRICA CREDIT RATING

USDZAR CLIMBS与南非信贷评级相关评分

• USDZAR extends weekly gains as South African Rand weakness exacerbates recent move to the upside

  USDZAR延长周涨幅为南非兰德的疲软加剧了近期向上的走势

• South Africa credit cut to junk status with negative outlook by Fitch Ratings

  南非信贷削减至垃圾级别，惠誉评级为负面展望

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• South African downgrade primarily attributable to widening budget deficits and slower GDP growth

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The South African Rand (ZAR) is coming under renewed pressure during Friday‘s trading session following news that Fitch Ratings cut South Africa’s credit rating to BB+ with negative outlook for the country. So far today, spot USDZAR is benefiting the most in response with the currency pair eclipsing the 14.200 handle and now trading at its highest level since June 26. Spot EURZAR and spot GBPZAR are also pushing higher to the tune of 1.01% and 0.67% respectively.

USDZAR SPOT PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JUNE 14, 2019 TO JULY 26, 2019)

USDZAR SPOT PRICE CHART：4小时时间框架（2019年6月14日至2019年7月26日）

It is worth mentioning that the recent jump in spot USDZAR began prior to Fitch Ratings releasing its South Africa credit downgrade. The South African Rand began to come under pressure earlier in the week following the IMF World Economic Outlook showing a 0.5% cut to its 2019 GDP growth forecast and a 0.4% reduction to its 2020 GDP growth estimate.

值得一提的是，近期美元兑日元的跳涨始于惠誉评级公布其南非信用评级下调之前。在国际货币基金组织“世界经济展望”显示其2019年国内生产总值增长预测下降0.5％，并将其减少0.4％至2020年国内生产总值增长预测后，本周早些时候南非兰特开始承受压力。

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The Fitch Ratings‘ South Africa credit downgrade reflected “a marked widening in the budget deficit as a result of lower GDP growth and increased spending” which raised estimates for the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Concerns over the finances of state-owned electric company Eskom also contributed to the negative outlook.

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While this could be chalked up to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, there could be another South Africa credit downgrade coming down the pipeline from Moodys who currently lists the country at Baa3, the lowest rating for investment-grade status, with neutral outlook. Another credit downgrade would likely exacerbate weakness in the South African Rand which could keep USDZAR bid – even with a Fed rate cut expected next week.

虽然这可以归结为“购买谣言，卖新闻”事件，可能会有另一个南非信用降级com目前在Baa3上列出该国的Moodys管道，这是投资级别最低的评级，具有中性前景。另一次信用评级下调可能会加剧南非兰特的疲软，这可能会让美元兑日元保持买单 - 即使预计美联储将在下周降息。