EUR/JPY Price Chart: Outside-day Reversal Off Key Support Post-ECB

• EUR/JPY prices reverse off critical weekly support– focus is on break of 120 – 121.74 range

  欧元/日元价格逆转关键的每周支撑位 - 重点突破120 - 121.74区间

EUR/JPY is poised to mark an outside-day reversal off major weekly support and leaves the broader short-bias vulnerable heading into the close of the week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/JPY weekly price chart.

EUR / JPY准备迎接外面的一天逆转主要的每周支撑，并使更广泛的短期偏见易于进入本周收盘。这些是欧元/日元每周价格图表中的更新目标和失效水平。

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EUR/JPY Price Chart – Weekly

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Notes: EUR/JPY dropped into a critical support confluence at 120.02/25– a level defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 advance and the 100% extension of the 2018 decline. Price is now poised to mark an outside-day reversal off fresh two-year lows on the back of todays European Central Bank interest rate decision and the battle lines are drawn.

注意：欧元兑日元在120.02跌至关键支撑汇合点/ 25-由2016年预付款的61.8％回撤和2018年下跌100％延长所定义的水平。在今天的欧洲央行利率决定和战线上，价格现已准备好标志着两年来新低的逆转逆转。

Initial resistance stands with the July high-week / weekly reversal close at 121.74 – note that the median-line of the broader descending pitchfork formation weve been tracking off the 2018 highs stands just higher. A breach / close above this zone is needed to suggest that a more significant low may be in place near-term with such a scenario targeting a rally back toward the key inflection zone at 123.35/65.

初步阻力位于7月高位周/周反转收盘位121.74 - 请注意，更广泛的下行干草叉形成的中线与2018年的高点相差甚远。需要在该区域上方突破/收盘以暗示近期可能出现更为显着的低点，这种情况的目标是回到123.35 / 65的关键拐点区域。

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A break / close below this key support confluence exposes the January (yearly) swing low at 118.82 – weakness beyond this threshold would be needed to validate a break of the yearly opening-range and risk substantial losses towards the lower parallel / 2017 low-week close near ~1.17.

Bottom line: EUR/JPY has now tested a critical support zone and puts the immediate focus on the 120.02 – 121.74 range – look to the break for guidance with the broader short-bias at risk while above 120. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. IF price is indeed heading lower, look for exhaustion ahead of 121.74 on a stretch higher with the broader focus still lower while below the median-line. Ill publish an updated EUR/JPY scalp setup once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

一句话：欧元兑日元现在已经测试了一个关键支撑区域并立即关注120.02 - 121.74区间 - 期待突破以获得更广泛的短期偏见指引风险高于120.从交易的角度来看，这是减少短期风险/降低保护性止损的好地方。如果IF价格确实走低，那么在121.74之前寻找疲惫，而更广泛的焦点仍然低于中线。一旦我们进一步明确了近期价格行为，我就会发布更新后的EUR / JPY头皮设置。

EUR/JPY Trader Sentiment

EUR / JPY Trader Sentiment

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/JPY - the ratio stands at a staggering +2.05 (67.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示交易者净多头欧元/日元 - 该比率达到惊人的+2.05（交易者持有多头的67.2％） - 看跌读数

• Traders have remained net-long since April 25th; price has moved 3.7% lower since then

  交易商自4月25日以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌3.7％

• Long positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 10.1% lower from last week

  多头头寸比昨天减少11.6％，比上周减少10.1％

• Short positions are 22.4% lower than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week.

  空头头寸比昨天减少22.4％，比上周减少1.9％。

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/JPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易者净多头意味着欧元/日元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看待欧元兑日元看跌的逆势交易偏差。

Relevant Euro / Japan Data Releases

相关欧元/日本数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。