U.S Mortgage Rates – FED Chair Powell Pins Mortgage Rates Back

Mortgage rates were flat in the week, following just a 2nd weekly rise in 8 weeks in the week prior. In the week ending 11th July, 30-year fixed rates held steady at 3.75% following a 2 basis point rise from the previous week. That left 30-year rates close the lowest level since late 2016 according to figures released by Freddie Mac.

本周抵押贷款利率维持不变，仅在前一周的8周内连续第二周上涨。在截至7月11日的一周内，30年期固定利率在前一周上涨2个基点后稳定在3.75％。根据房地美发布的数据，这使得30年期利率接近2016年末以来的最低水平。

Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 78 basis points.

与去年同期相比，30年期固定利率下降了78基准点。

More significantly, 30-year fixed rates are down by 119 basis points since last Novembers most recent peak of 4.94%.

更重要的是，自去年11月的最高峰值4.94％以来，30年期固定利率下降了119个基点。

Economic Data from the Week

本周的经济数据

Key stats out of the U.S through the 1st half of the week were on the lighter side.

本周上半周美国以外的主要统计数据偏轻。

JOLTs job opening numbers for May had a muted impact on yields at the start of the week. The lack of stats left the markets to respond to Friday‘s NFP numbers and look ahead to Powell’s 2-days of testimony.

5月份JOLT的就业数据对本周初的收益率影响不大。缺乏统计数据使得市场对周五的非农就业数据作出回应，并展望鲍威尔的2天证词。

The first day of FED Chair Powell‘s testimony weighed on U.S Treasury yields on Wednesday. The FED Chair continued to talk of downside risks and the FED’s willingness to provide support should the need arise.

美联储主席鲍威尔的证词第一天打压美国国债收益率在星期三。美联储主席继续谈论下行风险，美联储愿意在需要时提供支持。

With economic indicators softening, this was good enough for the markets. Yields reversed, which weighed on the Dollar, whilst supporting the U.S equity markets.

随着经济指标的疲软，这对市场来说已经足够了。收益率逆转，打压美元，同时支撑美国股市。

Late on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting minutes were of less of an influence, with Powells testimony fresh off the press.

周三晚些时候，联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要的影响力较小，鲍威尔的证词较新。按下。

Freddie Mac Rates

Freddie Mac房价

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 11th July were quoted byFreddie Macto be:

截至7月11日新抵押贷款的平均每周房价 Freddie Mac ：

• 30-year fixed rates remained unchanged at 3.75% in the week. Rates were down from 4.53% from a year ago. The average fee fell from 0.6 to 0.5 points.

  30本周固定利率维持在3.75％不变。利率从一年前的4.53％下降。平均费用从0.6降至0.5分。

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• 15-year fixed rates rose by 4 basis point to 3.22% in the week. Rates were down from 4.02% from a year ago. The average fee held steady at 0.5 points.

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• 5-year fixed rates increased by 1 basis point to 3.46% in the week. Rates were down by 40 basis points from last years 3.86%. The average fee held steady at 0.4 points.

  本周5年期固定利率上升1个基点至3.46％。利率比去年的3.86％下降了40个基点。平均费用稳定在0.4点。

The lack of movement in mortgage rates came as economic data out of the U.S saw some improvement, whilst the FED assured of monetary policy support as downside risks to the economy continued to build.

随着美国经济数据出现一些改善，抵押贷款利率出现不足。美联储确保货币政策支持，因为经济的下行风险继续增加。

Mortgage Bankers Association Rates

抵押贷款银行家协会利率

For the week ending 5th July, rateswere quoted to be:

截至7月5日的一周， 费率 被引用为：

• Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA, remained unchanged at 3.97%. Points also remained unchanged at 0.30 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  FHA支持的30年期固定利率维持在3.97％不变。对于80％的LTV贷款，积分也保持在0.30（包括发起费）。

• Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances decreased from 4.07% to 4.04%. Points increased from 0.36 to 0.37 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  30年固定的平均利率与合格的贷款余额从4.07％下降至4.04％。 80％LTV贷款的点数从0.36增加到0.37（包括发起费）。

• Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances increased from 4.00% to 4.03%. Points increased from 0.25 to 0.27 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  大型贷款余额的平均30年期利率从4.00增加％到4.03％。 80％LTV贷款的点数从0.25增加到0.27（包括发票费用）。

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 2.4% in the week ending 5th July. The fall followed on from a 0.1% fall in the week ending 28th June.

抵押贷款银行家协会发布的每周数据显示作为抵押贷款申请量指标的市场综合指数在截至7月5日的一周内下跌2.4％。截至6月28日的一周下跌0.1％。

The Refinance Index fell by 7% in the week ending 5th July. The Index fell by 1% in the previous week ending 28th June.

再融资指数在截至7月5日的一周内下跌了7％。该指数在截至6月28日的前一周下跌了1％。

The share of refinance mortgage activity decreased from 51.0% to 48.7%, following on from a fall from 51.5 to 51.0% in the week prior.

再融资按揭活动的比例从51.5％下降至48.7％，继51.5跌至51.0之后前一周的百分比。

According to the MBA, applications were down slightly, with purchases and refinance applications moving in opposite directions in the week. Borrowers have been less sensitive to low rates as many have either refinanced or are waiting for rates to fall further.

根据MBA，申请量略有下降，本周采购和再融资申请方向相反。借款人对低利率的敏感度较低，因为许多借款人已经再融资或正在等待费率将进一步下降。

For the week ahead

未来一周

Its a relatively busy first half of the week ahead.

本周上半周相对繁忙。

July NY Empire State Manufacturing figures will kick things off at the start of the week, which are forecasted to be yield positive.

7月纽约帝国制造业数据将在本周初开始，预计收益率为正。

The market focus will then shift to June retail sales figures due out on Tuesday. Retail sales will need to impress to provide any upside to yields. Industrial production and business inventory numbers will also be in focus on the day.

市场焦点然后将转向周二公布的6月零售销售数据。零售销售将需要留下深刻印象，以提供收益的任何好处。工业生产和商业库存数量也将成为当天关注的焦点。

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Housing sector figures due out on Wednesday will likely have a relatively muted impact on yields…

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Outside of the numbers

数字之外

Earnings season kicks in, with the big banks in focus. Disappointing earnings would likely overshadow any positive numbers on Tuesday.

盈利季节开始，重点关注大银行。令人失望的收益可能会掩盖周二的任何正数。

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