USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

NFP Analysis and Talking Points

NFP分析和谈话要点

• US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 224k in June, beating expectations of 160k expected; Prior month revised Lower

  6月美国非农就业人数增加22.4万，高于预期的160,000;上个月修订后降低

• US Average Hourly Earnings fell short of consensus

  美国平均每小时收入低于市场预期

• Markets Pullback on Bets of a 50bps Federal Reserve Rate Cut at the July Meeting

See our latest Q3 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency through the quarter.

查看我们最新的Q3 FX预测，了解将推动本季度的货币。

DATA RECAP

数据回收

US NFP 224k vs. Exp. 160k (Prev. 75k, Rev. 72k)

美国NFP 224k与Exp。 160k（上一页75k，Rev。72k）

Unemployment Rate 3.7% Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)

失业率3.7％Exp。 3.6％（上一次3.6％）

Average Earnings M/M 0.2% Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)

平均收益M / M 0.2％Exp。 0.3％（上一次0.3％）

Average Earnings Y/Y 3.1% Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)

平均收益Y / Y 3.1％Exp。 3.2％（上一页3.1％）

NFP Report Review

NFP报告审核

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment expanded by a 224k jobs in June, beating expectations of 160k. Alongside this, the headline figure for the prior month saw a downward revision to 72k from 75k, while the unemployment rate had ticked up to 3.7%, although this had been due to the rise in the participation rate.

美国劳工统计局报告非农就业人口总数（NFP） 6月份增加了224,000个就业岗位，超过预期的160,000个。除此之外，上月的标题数据从75,000下调至72,000，而失业率则上升至3.7％，尽管这是由于参与率上升所致。

Wage Growth Eases

工资增长缓慢

The Fed focussed wage data rose missed analyst estimates with the monthly reading showing a 0.2% rise vs Exp. 0.3%, which kept the yearly rate at 3.1%. Overall, the report was relatively robust, which in turn has seen Fed rate cut bets price out the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut at the July meeting, however, continues to fully price in a 25bps rate cut.

美联储关注的工资数据上涨超过分析师预期，月度数据显示与Exp相比上涨0.2％。 0.3％，年率保持在3.1％。总的来说，该报告相对强劲，反过来美联储降息预期导致7月份会议降息50个基点的可能性，然而，继续以25个基点的降息速度完全降价。

Market Response

市场反应

The robust jobs reports saw a firmer US Dollar across the board, while US Treasury yields also edged higher with the 10yr yield breaking above 2%. Consequently, gold prices have pushed lower with the precious metal making a break below $1400 as markets scale back on bets of a 50bps Fed rate cut.

强劲的就业报告显示美元全线走强，而美国国债收益率也小幅走高，10年期国债收益率跌破2％。因此，随着市场回落美联储降息50个基点的赌注，黄金价格下跌，贵金属跌破1400美元。

USD Price Chart: 1-minute time frame (Intra-day)

美元价格走势图：1分钟时间框架（日内）

Chart by IG

IG图表