Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breaks Out to Five-Year-Highs, Now What？

Gold Price Outlook Talking Points:

黄金价格展望谈话要点：

• Gold prices continue to rally following yesterdays dovish shift at the FOMC, perhaps helped in part by a potential flare of tensions between the US and Iran that showed earlier this morning.

  黄金价格继昨日温和转移后继续反弹联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能部分是因为今天早些时候美国和伊朗之间可能引发的紧张关系。

• Gold prices have set a fresh five-year-high, making a fast approach at the 1400 psychological level. Can buyers continue to push an already stretched topside move？

  黄金价格已经创下新鲜五年高，快速进入1400心理水平。买家能否继续推动已经出现的上行趋势？

Gold Price Breaks Out to Fresh Five-Year-Highs

黄金价格突破至新的五年高位

It‘s been a busy past 24 hours across global markets, and perhaps no single area shows the intensity of the scenario as well as Gold prices. While US stocks rallying to fresh all-time-highs the day after the Fed is noteworthy, Gold prices have exploded to a fresh five-year-high to continue a trend that’s been showing very visibly over the past three weeks.

全球市场过去24小时都很繁忙，也许没有一个区域能显示情景的强度以及黄金价格。在美联储值得注意的第二天美国股市上涨到新的历史高点的同时，黄金价格已经上涨至新的五年高点，继续在过去三周内显示出非常明显的趋势。

In the final days of May, Gold prices had cauterized support around a key Fibonacci level before breaking-out. And as that breakout took-hold, buyers continued to drive, soon pushing prices into a key zone of resistance that had held the highs in the yellow metal for the past five years. There were numerous prior inflections in the area that runs from 1357.50-1375, and a number of similar scenarios that had created bullish runs to bring that resistance back into play. Each of those had fallen flat; until today, that is, as buyers rushed to the bid to create a fresh five-year-high at the 1393.03 level.

在5月的最后几天，黄金价格在突破之前已经围绕一个关键的斐波那契水平进行了烧尽。随着突破的开始，买家继续开车，很快将价格推向一个过去五年一直保持黄金高位的关键区域。该区域有许多先前的变化，从1357.50-1375开始，并且一些类似的情景创造了看涨运行以使该阻力重新发挥作用。每个人都倒下了;直到今天，也就是说，买家急于在1393.03水平创造新的五年高点。

Gold Weekly Price Chart

黄金周价格图表

The big question after a move of this nature is usually pertaining to continuation potential. But, given the intensity of the move, it could be a daunting prospect to line up fresh exposure on either side of Gold prices at the moment. While the bullish move is quite stretched, the possibility for reversal could be of challenge given the pace with which this theme has priced-in. Meaning traders that are looking to join in on the move are likely going to need to either compromise by taking less-than-perfect entries or by being more patient. Below, I look at strategy on either side of the scenario.

此举后的一个重要问题通常与延续潜力有关。但是，考虑到此举的强度，目前在黄金价格的两边排列新的风险可能是一个令人生畏的前景。虽然看涨行动相当由于这个主题定价的速度，逆转的可能性可能会受到挑战。意味着在移动中加入的意义交易者可能需要通过采取不完美的条目或更耐心来妥协。下面，我会看一下情景两边的策略。

Gold Price Bullish Prospects

黄金价格看涨前景

This would be the favored side of the move given the recent theme that‘s been priced-in along with the rationale behind it. The Fed posing a dovish shift via the dot plot matrix yesterday has brought strength to a number of markets, with market participants buying most assets that aren’t already nailed down. And given that this was a recent change, there may be continuation potential to work with; but it could be difficult to justify risk outlay given how far away prices are currently stretched from any nearby resistance points.

这将是鉴于最近的主题已被定价，以及其背后的基本原理，这一举措受到青睐。美联储昨日通过点图矩阵进行温和转变，为许多市场带来了力量，市场参与者购买了大部分尚未确定的资产。鉴于这是最近的变化，可能有继续发挥作用;但考虑到目前距离任何附近的阻力位有多远的价格，可能很难证明风险支出的合理性。

At this point, Gold price action is catching some resistance from the prior swing-high from March of 2014. This level is at 1392.08, and just overhead is a psychological level that hasn‘t been in-play since August of 2013 at 1400. This leaves two areas of nearby support potential that could re-open the door for bullish trend strategies. The first zone is a batch of resistance that’s held the highs for the past couple of years. This area runs from 1357.50 up to 1366.06 and the former of those prices previously helped to come-in to mark swing-high resistance just a week ago. Now that prices have broken out, this becomes an obvious level to look to for pullback potential.

此时，黄金价格行动正在受到先前的阻力。从2014年3月开始走高。此水平位于1392.08，只是开销是一个心理水平，自2013年8月以来一直没有发生在1400.这留下了两个附近的支撑潜力区域，可以重新打开看涨趋势策略的大门。第一个区域是一批在过去几年中保持高位的阻力位。该区域从1357.50一直到1366.06，而之前的价格曾在一周之前帮助进入触及高位阻力位。现在价格已经突破，这对于回调潜力而言显然是一个明显的水平。

A bit-lower is another potential support area that runs from 1342.74-1346.75. The former price is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move while the latter-level was the February swing-high.

低点是另一个潜在的支撑区域，从1342.74-1346.75开始。前者价格是2013 - 2015年主要走势的76.4％斐波纳契折线，而后者是2月份的涨幅。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图

Gold Price Bearish Prospects

黄金价格看跌前景

Given how fast this recent theme has priced-in traders should be rightfully cautious of fading this move in Gold. But – given the overbought nature and the general sense of excitement that helped to create it, there could be scope for pullback here that may, eventually, turn into bigger-picture reversal potential. For now, traders harboring a bearish focus on Gold should focus on step one in looking for prices to pull back. That support areas looked at above could function as near-term target potential, with the inclusion of the prior five-year-high at 1375.15 as a closer point of support potential that could be used for break-even stop moves. That way, if the pullback is shallow and the bullish breakout continues, loss mitigation becomes the priority.

鉴于此近期主题定价的速度有多快应该谨慎对待黄金这一举动的谨慎态度。但是 - 考虑到超买本质以及有助于创造它的一般兴奋感，这里可能存在回调空间，最终可能转变为更大幅度的反转潜力。现在，看跌黄金的看跌焦点的交易商应该把重点放在寻找价格回落的第一步上。上面看到的支撑区域可以作为近期目标潜力，将之前的五年高位包含在1375.15作为支撑潜力的一个更接近的点，可以用于收支平衡止损。这样，如果回调很浅并且看涨突破继续，减损成为优先考虑。

Gold Price Daily Chart

黄金价格每日图表

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Chart prepared by James Stanley