Gold Prices May Be Set to Resume Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Gold prices had been on a tear up until a week ago. After moving sideways for the past several days, the rally by gold prices may be ready to resume.

  黄金价格一直在上涨至一周前。在过去几天横向移动之后，金价的涨势可能已经准备好恢复。

• Softness in US Treasury yields may be helping drive gold higher as geopolitical concerns have lifted golds fundamental appeal as a safe haven asset.

  美国国债收益率走软可能有助推动黄金走势随着地缘政治担忧提升黄金作为避险资产的基本吸引力，黄金价格走高。

• Retail trader positioning is no longer dictating the conditions for a pullback in gold prices.

  零售交易商的定位不再决定黄金价格回落的条件。

After a huge rally at the end of May and the beginning of June, gold prices have settled into an approximate $30 range over the past week. But its not just gold prices: volatility has cooled across the board, with bonds, currencies, equities trading in tighter ranges in recent days. Following the Mexico tariff ceasefire at the end of last week, it feels as if traders are taking a collective sigh of relief ahead of the June Fed meeting next week. Now, with most of the week in the rearview mirror, traders are looking ahead to risks around the corner.

在5月底和6月初的大幅反弹之后，过去一周黄金价格已经稳定在30美元附近。但不仅仅是黄金价格：波动性已全面降温，最近几天债券，货币和股票交易区间走势紧缩。在上周末墨西哥关税停火之后，在下周六月美联储会议召开之前，交易商感觉好像已经集体松了一口气。现在，本周大部分时间都在后视镜中，交易员正在展望即将到来的风险。

Gold Volatility Starting to Increase Again

黄金波动性再次开始增加

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With the June Fed meeting next week likely to signal the end of the Fed rate hike cycle and the start of the Fed rate cut cycle, traders have started to factor in greater uncertainty around gold prices – a good sign for bullion. Whereas other asset classes don‘t like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold’s and silvers safe haven appeal.

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GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (June 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

GVZ（黄金波动率）技术分析：每日价格走势图（2018年6月至2019年6月）（图1）

After pressing lower over the past several days, gold volatility (as measured by the Cboes gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) has moved up back towards its June high, suggests that gold prices may be facing an easier environment in the near-term.

过去几天按下后，黄金波动性（以Cboes黄金波动率ETF衡量，GVZ追踪从GLD期权链衍生的1个月黄金隐含波动率）已回升至6月高点，表明黄金价格可能面临更为宽松的环境在短期内。

Gold Price Pullback Mirrored Other Episodes

黄金价格回调镜像其他情节

In the month of June, we‘ve been carefully watching the gold price rally. Last Wednesday, gold prices moved more than 2% above their daily 21-EMA for just the fifth time since the gold price bottom developed in Q3’19. In the four previous instances, gold prices averaged a 1-week return of -0.49%. As such, at the time it was noted that “the risk for exhaustion setting in again soon and cutting the rally short is increasing.”

在六月份，我们一直在仔细观察黄金价格反弹。上周三，金价自2009年第三季度黄金价格触底以来第五次上涨超过每日21-EMA 2％以上。在之前的四次黄金价格平均为1周返回-0.49％。因此，当时人们注意到“很快再次出现疲惫的风险并缩短反弹的风险正在增加。”

After hitting a high of 1348.13 last Wednesday, June 5, when gold prices first moved more than 2% more than the daily 21-EMA, gold prices came down -0.81% to where they closed yesterday, Wednesday, June 12.

上周三，6月5日黄金价格高位1348.13第一次上涨超过每日21-EMA超过2％，黄金价格下跌-0.81％至昨天，即6月12日周三收盘。

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (April 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 2)

黄金价格技术分析：每日图表（2018年4月至2019年6月）（图2）

Now that the episode where the gold price move in excess of 2% of the daily 21-EMA signaled near-term exhaustion has behaved similar to the prior four episodes, then the healthy correction in gold prices may have run its course; the longer-term uptrend is still valid.

现在金价涨幅超过2％每日21-EMA标志着近期疲惫表现与之前的四集相似，那么黄金价格的健康调整可能已经开始;长期上升趋势仍然有效。

Earlier this week it was noted that “former resistance now support appearing as the March 25 swing high at 1324.40 may be the first near-term support level followed by the daily 8-EMA at 1322.07.” Indeed, this area around 1322.07/1324.40 held, exculpatory proof that former resistance has indeed become support, confirming the series of higher highs in the process.

本周早些时候，人们注意到“前阻力现在支持出现在3月25日的高点1324.40可能是近期的第一个支撑水平随后是每日8-EMA在1322.07。”事实上，这个区域在1322.07 / 1324.40附近举行，无罪证明前阻力确实成为支撑，证实了该系列这个过程中有更高的高点。

As such, if the near-term exhaustion condition is worked off, then the recent gold price consolidation may be coming to an end as well. With gold volatility rising once more, it seems increasingly likely that the next gold price move will be to the topside; the rally is set to continue.

因此，如果近期的疲惫条件得以解决，那么最近的黄金价格整合也可能即将结束。随着黄金价格再次上涨，下一个黄金价格走势似乎越来越有可能走向上行;涨势将继续。

A break above the 1348.31 high set on June 7 would trigger a bullish breakout, with a measured move up to a new 2019 high at 1376.39. Only a move below 1319.87, recent consolidation support, would nullify the prospective bullish outlook.

突破6月7日的1348.31高点将触发看涨突破，有望上探至新的2019年高点1376.39。只有在1319.87下方移动，近期的整合支撑，将使预期的看涨前景无效。

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (June 13, 2019) (Chart 3)

IG客户情绪指数：现货黄金价格预测（2019年6月13日）（图3）

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Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 58.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 2.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.8% higher than yesterday and 0.4% lower from last week.

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We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed spot gold trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商持续观点表明现货黄金价格可能继续下跌。定位比昨天减少净多头，但比上周净多头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们进一步出现了混合现货黄金交易偏见。