Euro Price Analysis: Bulls Bring EURUSD Bounce, EURJPY Resistance

Euro Price Analysis Talking Points:

欧元价格分析谈话要点：

• The Euro has shown resilience in the aftermath of last week‘s ECB rate decision. Despite the bank’s dovish tone, the currency continues to exhibit strength against both USD and the Japanese Yen.

  欧元在最后的结果后表现出韧性本周的欧洲央行利率决定。尽管该银行的温和基调，该货币对美元和日元的汇率继续呈现强势。

• Can Euro sellers come back to make a mark？ EURJPY may be better position for such a theme, while a continuation of USD-weakness may continue to help provide bid support behind EURUSD.

  欧元卖家可以回来制作商标吗？欧元兑日元可能更适合这样一个主题，而持续的美元疲软可能继续有助于提供欧元兑美元背后的买单支持。

Euro Strength Through a Series of Risks

欧元走强通过一系列风险

It‘s been a bizarre if not unexpected two-week stretch for the single currency. Going into the last full week of May, European Parliamentary elections threatened to create a bit of worry, and despite a bent of nationalism that showed through many of those electorates, the European currency remained fairly calm in the aftermath. And then last week brought an ECB rate decision in which the bank took on a familiar dovish tone, appearing uneasy with recent trends towards inflation and economic growth. But, similarly, bears failed to capitalize and prices have continued to trend-higher. This speaks to the fact that this pessimism around Europe isn’t necessarily a ‘new’ thing while matters in the US have begun to shift of recent.

对于单一货币来说，这是一个奇怪的，如果不是意外的两周延长。进入5月的最后一周，欧洲议会选举可能会引起一些担忧，尽管许多选民都表现出民族主义倾向，但欧洲货币在此后仍然相当平静。然后上周提出了一个欧洲央行利率决定，其中银行采取了熟悉的鸽派态度，对近期通胀和经济增长趋势感到不安。但同样，空头未能实现资本化，价格继续走高。这说明了这样一个事实，即欧洲的这种悲观主义并不一定是“新的”事情，而美国的事情最近已开始转变。

Last week saw FOMC Chair Jerome Powell take on a dovish tone in a set of remarks, and this furthered a theme of USD-weakness that outmatched any selling that mightve shown in the Euro. Those Powell comments also helped to firm US equity prices, and as the risk trade has come back in full bloom after a rocky month of May, themes of Yen-strength have also taken a back seat.

上周看到FOMC主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在一系列评论中采取温和的态度，这进一步推动了美元疲软的主题，这与欧元所显示的任何卖盘相媲美。那些鲍威尔的言论也有助于巩固美国股票价格，并且随着风险交易在五月的艰难月份之后重新开始，日元强势的主题也退居二线。

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This leads to a fairly interesting backdrop around the Euro. For traders looking at bearish Euro themes, EURJPY may hold some attraction as prices are testing a key area of resistance. And that theme of risk aversion/bearish Euro prognostications appears to align very well with themes of Yen-strength, thereby making EURJPY as a viable candidate. On the other side of the argument, for those looking at Euro strength, whether as a short-term retracement or a longer-term reversal, EURUSD may be a bit more attractive given the recent trend thats priced-in. Below, I look into each of those pairs.

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EURUSD Tests Two-Month-Highs as USD-Weakness Takes Control

欧元兑美元测试两个月高点，因为美元走弱控制权

Last weeks run of selling in the US Dollar was rather pronounced, and this comes in stark contrast to the way the currency had traded for much of the prior eight months since bottoming out in September of last year. That generally strong US Dollar to go along with a generally weak Euro was a theme that currency traders were really able to sink their teeth into last summer, and that theme of weakness in EURUSD showed up again in September as discussions between Brussels and Rome started to grow contentious around the Italian budget.

上周美元的卖盘运行相当明显，这与该货币自去年9月触底以来的前8个月大部分交易方式形成鲜明对比。由于欧元普遍走软，美元普遍走强是货币交易商真正能够在去年夏天陷入困境的主题，欧元兑美元疲软的主题在9月再次出现，因为布鲁塞尔和罗马之间的讨论开始在意大利预算中引起争议。

But, through it all, sellers continued to show significant trepidation around support. Even as the European Central Bank announced a fresh round of QE in April, just a few months after announcing an ‘exit’ from stimulus, EURUSD posed a muted bearish breakdown. Sellers were unable to encroach below the 1.1100 handle, and a number of bear traps built in the month-and-a-half thats followed.

但是，通过这一切，卖家继续对支持表现出极大的担忧。即使欧洲央行在4月宣布新一轮量化宽松政策，就在宣布退出刺激计划后几个月，欧元兑美元也出现了一个低迷的看跌崩盘。卖家无法在1.1100手柄下方进行侵占，并在随后的一个半月内建立了一些熊陷阱。

But now that USD weakness is coming into the equation, EURUSD has bucked the recent bearish trend to push up to fresh two-month-highs. The past week has provided a number of interesting clues around topside themes in the pair, including last weeks quick test of support at a key zone on the chart that runs from 1.1187-1.1212.

但现在美元疲软正在进入在这个等式中，欧元兑美元已经逆转近期看跌趋势，推升至两个月新高。过去一周提供了许多关于该货币对中上方主题的有趣线索，包括上周在1.1187-1.1212的图表关键区域快速测试支撑。

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

At this point, EURUSD is battling at a key area of resistance, and this was looked at last week ahead of the bullish move. This takes place around the 1.1325 area and helped to mark the April swing highs. A bit higher on the chart presents another area of resistance potential around the 1.1400-handle, after which longer-term, prior range resistance comes into play from the 1.1448-1.1500 area on the chart.

此处欧元兑美元正在一个关键的阻力区域内进行争夺，这是在看好上周之前看到的即这发生在1.1325区域附近，有助于标志4月份的高点。图表略高一点，在1.1400手柄附近呈现另一个阻力位区域，此后较长期的先前区间阻力位于图表上的1.1448-1.1500区域。

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

EURUSD每日价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

EURJPY Holds Fibonacci Resistance

EURJPY持有斐波那契阻力

Its already been a topsy-turvy type of year in EURJPY, which came into 2019 screaming lower as Q4 themes of risk aversion remained. The first quarter of this year was marked by recovery from that swoon, but sellers came back into play in mid-April and have controlled the matter for much of the time since.

在欧元兑日元汇率一直处于颠覆状态，由于风险厌恶情绪的第四季度主题依然存在，因此在2019年出现了尖锐的下跌。今年第一季度的特点是从那次昏迷中恢复过来，但卖家在4月中旬重新开始行动，并在此后的大部分时间内控制了此事。

So far in June, prices have bounced as the risk trade has come back into favor. Current resistance is showing in EURJPY around 123.10, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2012 major move. This price was in-play in late-2016 and early-2017, helping to set resistance turned support as the trend flipped.

所以在6月份，随着风险交易重新受到青睐，价格反弹。欧元兑日元目前的阻力位于123.10附近，这是2008 - 2012年重大举措的23.6％斐波纳契折线。这个价格在2016年底和2017年初发挥作用，随着趋势的转变，有助于设置阻力位。

EURJPY Weekly Price Chart

EURJPY每周价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

This longer-term Fibonacci level in EURJPY is confluent with another level of interest, as the 50% marker of the 2019 major move is just a pip away. A hold of resistance here keeps the door open for themes of bearish continuation, looking for a move towards 122.00 followed by a push towards prior support around 120.85.

欧元兑日元的长期斐波那契水平与另一个利益水平相融合，因为2019年重大举措的50％标志只是一点点。此举阻力位继续看跌继续走势，寻求向122.00走势，随后推动先前支撑位于120.85附近。

EURJPY Daily Price Chart

EURJPY每日价格走势图 p>

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Chart prepared by James Stanley