Crude Oil Price Analysis: Brent Crude Eyes Critical Test of $60 Support

Oil Price Analysis and News

油价分析和新闻

• Brent Crude Risks Breaking Through $60

  布伦特原油风险突破60美元

• Hedge Funds Continue to Head for the Exit

  对冲基金继续前往退出

  {9} 对冲基金继续前往退出 {9}

Brent Crude Risks Breaking Through $60

布伦特原油风险突破60美元

The oil market continues to remain soft as the bearish bias towards risk assets in light of rising concerns of a global slowdown weighs on the energy market. Consequently, Brent crude futures are at risk of breaking below $60 for the first time since the beginning of the year as fears mount over a potential hit to consumption growth. Coinciding with the move lower in the spot market, the Brent futures curve has also seen a pullback from its steep backwardation (6-month spreads are now at $1.80 from a prior $4.30), providing an increasing sense that trade war fears are outweighing potential supply side related risks.

由于对风险资产的担忧加剧，石油市场继续疲软全球经济放缓对能源市场构成压力。因此，布伦特原油期货自年初以来首次跌破60美元以下，因为人们担心消费增长可能受到打击。与现货市场走低相反，布伦特原油期货曲线也出现了大幅回落的逆转（6个月利差现在从先前的4.30美元上涨至1.80美元），提供了越来越多的意识，即贸易战的担忧超过了潜在的供给相关风险。

What is Brent Crude Backwardation？

什么是布伦特原油期货？

Elsewhere, reports that Norwegian oil workers have struck a wage deal with employers today had led to a strike being avoided, which would have cut production by 440kbpd. Subsequently, keeping a lid on any bounce in the energy complex. As such, focus is on the psychological $60 handle to provide a floor for oil prices.

此外，据报道挪威石油工人今天与雇主达成工资协议导致罢工被避免，这将使产量减少440kbpd。随后，关闭能量复合体中的任何反弹。因此，重点放在60美元的心理上为油价提供底线。

Hedge Funds Continue to Head for the Exit

Hedge funds have continued to exit their bullish positioning in the Brent crude oil with net longs dropping by a sizeable 40k lots amid the capitulation in oil prices throughout May. Consequently, the ratio of long/short positioning has almost halved from over 2 weeks ago to 8:1 (Prev. 15:1) with risks of a further liquidation of long Brent positioning on the horizon. (COT Commodity report)

对冲基金继续在整个5月份油价投降期间，由于净多头减少了4万手，因此退出他们对布伦特原油的看涨定位。因此，多头/空头定位的比率几乎减少了一半，从2周前变为8：1（上一个15：1），并且可能会出现长期布伦特原油定位进一步清算的风险。 （COT Commodit报告）

Brent Crude Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Aug 2018 – Jun 2019)

布伦特原油价格走势图：每日时间表（2018年8月 - 2019年6月）

Oil Impact on FX

Oil Impact关于外汇

Net Oil Importers: These countries tend to be worse off when the price of oil rises. This includes, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, EUR, CNY, IDR, JPY

净石油进口国：当石油价格上涨时，这些国家往往会变得更糟。这包括，KRW，ZAR，INR，TRY，EUR，CNY，IDR，JPY

Net Oil Exporters: These counties tend to benefit when the price of oil rises. This includes RUB, CAD, MXN, NOK.

净石油出口国：当石油价格上涨时，这些县往往会受益。这包括RUB，CAD，MXN，NOK。

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

---写的作者：Justin McQueen，市场分析师