U.S Mortgages – Rates Fall for a 5th Consecutive Week

Mortgage rates fell for a 5th consecutive week in the week ending 30th May. 30-year fixed rates fell by 7 basis points following on from a 1 basis point fall from the previous week. The 7 basis point fall took 30-year rates to 3.99% according to figures released by Freddie Mac.

抵押贷款利率在截至5月30日的一周内连续第5周下跌。 30年期固定利率从前一周下降1个基点后下降了7个基点。根据房地美发布的数据，7个基点的下跌将30年期利率下调至3.99％。

Following the weekly fall, 30-year fixed rates stood 57 basis points below levels from 12-months ago.

在每周下跌后，30年期固定利率低于水平57个基点从12个月前开始。

More significantly, 30-year fixed rates have fallen by 95 basis points since last Novembers most recent peak of 4.94%.

更重要的是，自去年11月的最高峰值4.94％以来，30年期固定利率下降了95个基点。

Economic Data from the Week

本周的经济数据

Economic data through the first half of the week was on the lighter side. May consumer confidence and April house price figures provided direction.

本周上半周的经济数据偏轻。 5月消费者信心指数和4月房价数据提供了方向。

While house price growth slowed further in April, with prices rising by 2.7% year-on-year, following a 3% March, consumer confidence jumped in May.

4月房价增长进一步放缓，价格同比上涨2.7％，继3月3％之后消费者信心指数在5月份大幅上升。

In spite of the boost in consumer confidence, suggesting strong consumer spending in the months ahead, market risk aversion plagued in the week.

尽管消费者信心增强，预示未来几个月消费者支出强劲，本周市场风险厌恶情绪仍然存在。

Trade war chatter and growing concerns over the global economic outlook led to a pullback in U.S Treasury yields on the week.

贸易战喋喋不休以及对全球经济前景日益增长的担忧导致本周美国国债收益率回落。

On Friday, the 3-month – 10-year yield spread slid to -22 following a slide in 10-year yields to 2.12% off the back of news of new tariffs targeting Mexico.

周五，3月度 - 10年期国债收益率下跌至-22，此前10年期国债收益率下滑至2.12％，而新的关税以墨西哥为目标。

Previous week data out of the U.S set a bearish mood going into the week, with disappointing durable goods orders and private sector PMI numbers weighing.

上周的数据美国本周出现看跌情绪，耐用品订单令人失望，私营部门PMI数据令人失望。

From the housing sector, in spite of the downward trend in mortgage rates this year, home sales disappointed in April.

尽管房地产行业出现下滑趋势，但仍未出现下滑趋势。抵押贷款利率今年4月房屋销售失望。

New home sales slumped by 6.9%, with existing home sales and pending home sales falling by –0.4% and by 1.5% respectively.

新屋销售下滑6.9％，现房销售和待售房屋销售分别下降-0.4％和1.5％。

Freddie Mac Rates

Freddie Mac房价

The weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 30th May were quoted byFreddie Macto be:

截至5月30日新抵押贷款的平均房价均由 Freddie Mac 引用：

• 30-year fixed rates fell by 7 basis points to 3.99% in the week. Rates were down from 4.56% from a year ago. The average fee held steady at 0.5 points.

  30年固定费率一周中7个基点到3.99％。利率从一年前的4.56％下降。平均费用稳定在0.5分。

• 15-year fixed rates slipped by 5 basis points to 3.46% in the week. Rates were down from 4.06% from a year ago. The average fee increased from 0.4 points to 0.5 points.

  15年固定费率本周下跌5个基点至3.46％。利率从一年前的4.06％下降。平均费用从0.4分增加到0.5分。

• 5-year fixed rates fell by 8 basis points to 3.60% in the week. Rates decreased by 20 basis points from last years 3.80%. The average fee held steady at 0.4 points.

  5年本周固定利率下跌8个基点至3.60％。利率比去年的3.80％下降了20个基点。平均费用稳定在0.4点。

According to Freddie Mac, concerns over the effects of the ongoing trade war on the U.S and global economy weighed on risk sentiment. The downward trend in mortgage rates is expected to support the housing market.

据Freddie Mac称，对持续贸易战对美国和全球经济影响的担忧打压风险情绪。抵押贷款利率的下降趋势预计将支撑住房市场。

Mortgage Bankers Association Rates

抵押贷款银行家协会利率

For the week ending 24th May, rateswere quoted to be:

截至5月24日的一周， 费率 被引用为：

• Average interest rates for 30-year fixed, backed by the FHA, decreased from 4.34% to 4.33%. Points decreased from 0.47 to 0.43 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  30年期固定利率的平均利率由FHA支持，从4.34％下降至4.33％。 80％LTV贷款的点数从0.47降至0.43（包括发起费）。

• Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances held steady at 4.33%. Points decreased from 0.43 to 0.42 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  30年固定的平均利率与合格贷款余额持稳于4.33％。 80％LTV贷款的点数从0.43降至0.42（包括发起费）。

• Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 4.24% to 4.18%. Points decreased from 0.35 to 0.23 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

  大型贷款余额的平均30年期利率从4.24下降％到4.18％。 80％LTV贷款的积分从0.35降至0.23（包括发起费）。

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 3.3% in the week ending 24th May. The decrease reversed a 2.4% rise in the week ending 17th May.

抵押贷款银行家协会发布的每周数据显示市场综合指数是衡量抵押贷款申请量的指标，在截至5月24日的一周内下降了3.3％。截至5月17日的一周，这一下降幅度反转了2.4％。

The Refinance Index decreased by 6% in the week ending 24th May. The Index had increased by 8% in the previous week ending 17th May.

在5月24日结束的一周内，再融资指数下降了6％。该指数在截至5月17日的前一周增加了8％。

The share of refinance mortgage activity decreased from 40.5% to 39.7%, following an increase from 37.9% to 40.5% in the week prior.

该份额再融资抵押贷款活动从前一周的37.9％增加到40.5％，从40.5％下降到39.7％。

In spite of the pullback in mortgage rates, purchase applications fell for a 3rd consecutive week, while continuing to sit more than 7% up year-on-year.

尽管抵押贷款利率出现回落，但购买申请连续第3周下降，同时继续比去年同期增长7％以上。

For the week ahead

未来一周

Its a busy first half of the week. May private-sector PMI numbers are due out on Monday and Wednesday. Following durable goods orders and factory order numbers on Tuesday, ADP nonfarm employment change figures on Wednesday will also influence.

本周上半周忙碌。私营部门的PMI数据可能在周一和周三公布。继周二的耐用品订单和工厂订单数量之后，周三ADP非农就业变化数据也将受到影响。

We can expect yields to be particularly sensitive to the markets preferred ISM survey results. With the U.S yield curve inverting last week, any weakness in the numbers will trigger further risk aversion.

我们预计收益率将对市场首选的ISM调查结果特别敏感。随着上周美国收益率曲线反转，数据的任何疲软都将引发进一步的避险情绪。

From outside of the U.S, Chinas manufacturing PMI on Monday will also test market risk appetite at the start of the week.

来自美国以外的中国制造业采购经理人指数周一也将测试市场风险偏好在本周开始时。

Trump just threatened Mexico with tariffs, in spite of the ink yet to dry on the USMCA. How Mexico responds and whether more trade partners are added to the list will be key.

特朗普刚刚以关税威胁墨西哥，尽管USMCA的墨水还没有变干。墨西哥如何回应以及是否有更多的贸易伙伴加入名单将是关键。