GBPUSD Choppy, Theresa May Resigns, What Next？ - US Market Open

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBPUSD Choppy, Theresa May Resigns, What Next？

市场发展 - 英镑兑美元波动，特蕾莎可能会辞职，下一步是什么？

DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

DailyFX Q2 2019年外汇交易预测

GBP: The Pound has traded in choppy fashion after Theresa May announced her resignation. In an immediate reaction to the news GBPUSD had saw a modest lift higher towards Wednesday high at 1.2720, before quickly retracing, while EURGBP tested the 0.88 handle. (Full story)

英镑：英镑之后波动不定特丽莎梅宣布辞职。英国证券交易所对此消息做出了立即反应，在周三高位1.2720附近温和走高，然后迅速回落，而欧元兑英镑测试了0.88手。 （全文）

What Next？

下一步是什么？

• Theresa May will step down on June 7th, however, will remain in office until a new leader is found.

  Theresa May将于6月7日下台，但仍将留任，直到找到新的领导人。

• The Tory Leadership contest will begin on June 10th and as is expected to be finalised by the end of July.

  保守党领导力竞赛将于6月10日开始，预计将于7月底完成。

• Next PM Odds: Boris Johnson (11/8), Dominic Raab (4/1), Michael Gove (10/1), Andrea Leadsom (14/1), Jeremy Hunt (14/1)

  下周PM赔率：鲍里斯·约翰逊（ 11/8），Dominic Raab（4/1），Michael Gove（10/1），Andrea Leadsom（14/1），Jeremy Hunt（14/1）

Whoever the next Prime Minister is, the divided opinion in the political landscape remains the same and while it is difficult to predict the near term outcome in UK politics, there is an increased risk of a general election by the autumn, potentially leading to another extension to A50 (currently set to expire by October 31st). At the time, the risk of a no deal has been increased once again.

无论下一任总理是谁，政治格局中的分歧意见仍然相同，虽然很难预测英国政治的近期结果，但大选的风险增加了秋季，可能导致另一次延伸至A50（目前将于10月31日到期）。当时，没有交易的风险再次增加。

GBP Bears Beware: Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling

英镑熊谨慎：鲍里斯作为英国首相可能对英镑有利

Oil: Following yesterday‘s plunge in the energy complex, oil prices are set for its largest weekly loss in 2019 as concerns over a global slowdown raises fears over reduced demand. However, given the overextended drop in yesterday’s price action, Brent and WTI crude futures have recouped some losses. Alongside this, the backwardation (typically a bullish signal) in the oil curve has steepened, which in turn places the focus on potential supply outages stemming from rising geopolitical tensions.

石油：继昨天能源综合体大幅下挫之后，由于对全球经济放缓的担忧引发了对需求减少的担忧，油价创下2019年以来的最大单周跌幅。然而，鉴于昨日价格行动的过度预期下跌，布伦特原油和WTI原油期货已收复部分跌幅。与此同时，石油曲线的逆转（通常是看涨信号）已经变得陡峭，这反过来又将重点放在地缘政治紧张局势升级导致的潜在供应中断上。

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

来源：DailyFX，汤森路透

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今天的推动市场

• “Gold Price Eyeing Support, Silver Price Rebound Fading” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

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• “Theresa May Announces Resignation, GBPUSD Heading Lower” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

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