US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD Talking Points:

EURUSD，GBPUSD，USDCAD谈话要点：

• The US Dollar has had a wild past 24 hours; first pushing up to a fresh two-year-high followed by an aggressive reversal after the release of yesterdays PMI data.

  美元历史悠久24小时;在昨天公布的PMI数据发布后，首先推升至新的两年高位，随后出现激进逆转。

• USD is now testing support at prior breakout resistance, taken from the 97.70 level that previously marked the yearly high as well as the resistance side of an ascending triangle formation.

  美元正在测试先前突破阻力位的支撑，取自之前标志为年度高位的97.70水平以及上升三角形形态的阻力位。

• A number of themes remain volatile in nature, with both European Parliamentary elections and UK politics keeping both EURUSD and GBPUSD in the spotlight. In USDCAD, the pair remains range-bound ahead of next weeks BoC rate decision.

  A主题数量仍然不稳定，欧洲议会选举和英国政治都将欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元保持在聚光灯下。在美元兑加元中，该货币对在下周的加拿大央行利率决定之前保持区间震荡。

US Dollar Rip and Dip

美元撕裂和下跌

It was a climactic day across global markets on Thursday, extending whats become a very active week. European Parliamentary elections are currently taking place, and this morning brought the announcement that British PM Theresa May will be stepping down on June the 7th. Outside of these very key drivers, a number of price action themes availed themselves, driven in-part by the release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

周四是全球市场的高潮日，延续了一周非常活跃的一周。欧洲议会选举目前正在进行，今天上午宣布英国首相特丽莎梅将于6月6日辞职。在这些非常关键的驱动因素之外，许多价格行动主题都是利用的，部分原因是周三公布的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要。

As looked at yesterday, the US Dollar rallied up to the two-year-high after the release of FOMC meeting minutes. And prices in USD did pose a topside push to establish a fresh two-year-high. But, that‘s where the music stopped, and following the release of some poor PMI’s from yesterday, prices quickly reversed and pushed right back to a key area of support. This comes-in around 97.70, which was the prior yearly high, helping to set resistance in the longer-term ascending wedge pattern that punctuated the backdrop coming into Q2.

从昨天看，美元在FOMC会议纪要公布后，股价上涨至两年高位。美元的价格确实构成了创造新的两年高点的上行推动力。但是，这就是音乐停止的地方，并且在昨天一些糟糕的PMI发布之后，价格迅速逆转并推回到一个关键的支撑区域。这是在97.70附近，这是之前的年度高点，有助于在长期上升的楔形模式中设置阻力，突破了第二季的背景。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由詹姆斯·斯坦利准备

EURUSD Prone to Gap Risk Around Euro Elections

欧元兑美元在欧元区选举中容易受到风险的影响

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Going along with that reversal from fresh highs in the US Dollar, EURUSD put in a reversal after tip-toeing down to a fresh low. The 1.1100 area on the chart remains unfettered as sellers were unable to elicit a test-below this week. As looked at in yesterday‘s webinar, a key area of chart resistance remains of interest, taken from prior range support that printed in EUR/USD from 1.1187-1.1212. Price action remains in this area ahead of this morning’s US open, but traders would likely want to move forward with a bit of caution here as a big theme of weekend risk could elicit outsized gaps to start next weeks trade.

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EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

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GBPUSD Back Down

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It‘s been a busy morning in the UK as markets finally got word of Theresa May’s resignation, set to take place on June the 7th. The likely successor, Boris Johnson, has already been speaking around Brexit this morning, threatening to take the UK out of the EU without a deal by October 31st of this year.

由于市场终于得知Theresa May的辞职，定于6月7日举行，这是英国一个忙碌的早晨。可能的继任者鲍里斯·约翰逊今天早上已经围绕英国脱欧谈论，威胁要在今年10月31日之前没有达成协议将英国赶出欧盟。

After an initial bounce of strength on Ms. May‘s resignation announcement, prices have found resistance and started to move-lower again, taken from a key area of prior support in GBP/USD. Deeper support potential exists around the 1.2603 level that helped to set the five-month-low in the pair earlier this week. And a bit lower, around 1.2525 is another level of interest, followed by the 1.2442 ’flash crash low that came into play earlier this year.

在May女士的辞职公告中，价格初步反弹，价格已经出现阻力，并开始再次走低 - 取自英镑/美元先前支撑位的关键区域。本周早些时候，在1.2603水平附近存在更深的支撑位，这有助于创下该货币对的五个月低位。稍微低一点，大约1.2525是另一个兴趣水平，其次是今年早些时候发生的1.2442'闪电崩盘低点。

We are likely in for some continued volatility around UK markets, so traders would like want to remain cautious on both sides of the matter for the foreseeable future.

我们可能会持续波动在英国市场，所以交易者想要rem在可预见的未来对此事双方持谨慎态度。

GBPUSD Hourly Price Chart

英镑兑美元每小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

USDCAD Retains Range as 1.3500 Holds the Highs

美元兑加元保持区间为1.3500持有高点

While the US Dollar has been on the move this week, so has its Canadian cousin. This amounts to a continued range in USDCAD that became especially interesting in the latter-portion of this week, as a quick dip to support was followed by a strong push up to resistance. That resistance has since held and the range continues, leading into next weeks Bank of Canada rate decision.

虽然美元已经上涨本周搬家，加拿大表兄也是如此。这相当于美元兑加元的持续区间在本周后期变得特别有趣，因为快速下跌支撑之后是强势推升阻力位。此后阻力一直持续，并且范围仍在继续，导致下周的加拿大央行利率决定。

USDCAD Four Hour Price Chart

美元兑加元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

Will next week‘s BoC finally be the catalyst that USDCAD needs to move back into trend？ The Bank of Canada has been noticeably dovish of recent, removing hints of future rate hikes at the bank’s last rate decision in April. But – will they commit to cuts, something that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve appear reticent to do？

下周的加拿大央行最终将成为美元兑加元需要重新走向趋势的催化剂吗？加拿大最近显着的温和，消除了该银行4月份最后一次利率决定的未来加息迹象。但是 - 他们是否会承诺减产，杰罗姆鲍威尔和美联储似乎不愿意这样做？

From the Daily chart, bullish biases can remain attractive given the higher-lows that have printed since the January swoon in the pair. A topside break above the 1.3500 zone exposes resistance potential around 1.3567 followed by 1.3640.

从日线图看，看涨偏见仍然具有吸引力自从1月份的一对夫妇中就已经打印出来了。在1.3500区域上方的上行突破暴露阻力位1.3567附近，随后是1.3640。

USDCAD Daily Price Chart

USDCAD每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

---由DailyFX.com策略师James Stanley撰写